I. Market Overview: Moderate Inflation Triggers Surge, Underlying Fears Cap Gains
Surge and Pullback:
On Wednesday, encouraged by moderate US inflation figures, markets rapidly priced down September rate hike probabilities. Gold temporarily regained appeal, surging intraday to a peak of 4,449.71 USD/oz. However, bullish momentum evaporated quickly, sending prices tumbling back below the critical 4,400.00 USD psychological threshold.
Focus Shifts to Evening Data:
Although short-term inflation appears to be cooling, elevated crude oil prices driven by persistent Middle East geopolitical tensions have stoked quiet fears of secondary inflation, keeping buyers cautious and preventing a sustained upside breakout.
Market attention now turns squarely to tonight's US initial jobless claims and July PPI releases for new directional catalysts.
II. Gold Technical Analysis: Ascending Channel Broken, Selling on Resistance Rallies
Technical Assessment:
After hitting 4,449.71 USD during early trading, gold encountered severe selling pressure that not only erased most gains but also decisively broke the lower boundary of its ascending trend channel. Technical structures signal weakening momentum, with trendline resistance shifting down to 4,405.00 USD and capping potential rebound attempts.
III. Trade Execution Plan
Intraday Trading Strategy:
The primary trading approach pivots toward short positions on rallies below the broken trendline.
Consider initiating short entries near 4,405.00 USD, with supplementary short positioning near 4,407.00 USD if tested.
Strict stop-loss protection is set uniformly above 4,425.00 USD.
Initial downside targets point to 4,365.00 USD, with a high-volume breakdown opening targets toward 4,330.00 USD support.
Risk Disclaimer
Trading markets involve unpredictable risks, including the potential loss of principal. This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute direct investment advice. Investors should evaluate their risk tolerance and make independent decisions.