I. Fundamental Market Analysis

PCE Slightly Hotter Than Expected Boosts Rate Hike Odds:

US July overall PCE rose 0.2% MoM and 3.7% YoY, slightly exceeding consensus; core PCE came in at 0.2% MoM and 3.3% YoY. The data suggests inflation disinflation has stalled, lifting October 25bps rate hike expectations to ~52.7% and pushing gold temporarily below $4,600.

 

Easing Middle East Tensions Shift Focus to Jackson Hole:

Iran-Oman talks over a temporary shipping corridor in the Strait of Hormuz helped cool energy prices and forward inflation fears. Market focus now centers on Fed Chair Warsh's Jackson Hole speech on Friday at 22:00 (Beijing time), with tonight's US Initial Jobless Claims (20:30) serving as a key precursor.

 

II. Multi-Timeframe Technical Analysis

 

 

• 1-Hour Timeframe (Intraday Short-Term: Neutral Rebound):
• Evaluation: Gold trades near $4,621.06 (Day High: $4,627.08, Low: $4,595.58). After finding support at $4,595, price reclaimed MA1, MA20, and MA30. With moving averages tightly grouped, price action reflects a technical rebound repair rather than a confirmed single-leg rally.
• Indicators: RSI(14) prints 50.91 (Neutral).

 

 

• 4-Hour Timeframe (Medium-Term Trend: Bullish Momentum Cooling):
• Evaluation: Price stays above key moving averages, but momentum has softened following resistance below $4,700. Holding above key $4,600 support classifies the current structure as high-level consolidation.
• Indicators: RSI(14) prints 55.59 (Neutral-Strong).

 

III. Trading Execution Plan

Given gold's quick recovery above $4,600 and intact H4 support, the execution plan adopts a single Buy on Dips strategy.

• Strategy Direction: Buy on Dips (Rebound Repair)
• Trading Signal: Buy
• Confidence Index: 65 / 100
• Entry Observation Zone: 4602.59 - 4613.39
• Entry Baseline (Midline): 4607.99
• Stop-Loss Reference: 4575.47
• Target Take-Profit: 4680.83
• Risk-Reward Ratio: Approx. 1 : 2.25

 

【Execution Details】

Avoid chasing prices near $4,620. Wait for retracements into the $4,602 – $4,613 support band (confluence of H1 MA20/MA30 and H4 MA1).

Tonight's Jobless Claims (20:30) and Friday's Jackson Hole address (22:00) will amplify volatility; wait for candlestick close confirmations rather than trading intraday wicks.

 

IV. Risk Disclaimer

Financial markets involve unpredictable risks, including loss of principal. This analysis is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.