I. Fundamentals: US Rejects Truce Extension and Pressures Oman

Geopolitical friction in the Middle East escalated sharply on Monday. A senior Iranian official stated that with permanent peace talks stalled, Tehran is shifting to a "full offensive" posture, ready for targeted strikes to break naval blockades if diplomacy fails. Concurrently, US President Trump explicitly ruled out extending the June temporary ceasefire and warned Oman against interfering in Strait management negotiations. Although private communication channels remain open via intermediaries, public confrontational rhetoric has crushed hopes for swift maritime recovery.

II. Price Action: Sharp Drop Below $4,400 Driven by Tightening Fears

Exerted by macro tightening pressures fueled by energy market rallies, spot gold accelerated downward, trading near $4,389.79/oz (-0.61%, down $26.97) and surrendering the $4,400 psychological mark. After testing an intraday high of $4,436.24 during early Asian trading, momentum evaporated rapidly, giving way to heavy selling that dragged prices to a low of $4,386.09. Prices remain firmly capped below key moving averages.

III. Technical Indicators: Bearish Trend Dominates with Extreme Oversold Rebound Potential

30-minute technical evaluation shifts bearish overall, with indicators pointing downward while sensitive oscillators hit extreme oversold zones:

RSI(14) stands at 35.23, holding below the 50 neutral line in dovish territory;

MACD(12,26) registers -5.35, confirming ongoing selling momentum;

ADX(14) records 25.19 with a sell bias, demonstrating trend continuity;

StochRSI(14) touches 0.00 in extreme oversold territory;

Williams %R registers -97.18 in deep oversold zone;

STOCH(9,6) reads 12.91 in oversold area.

Confluence indicates an established short-term bearish bias, though extreme oversold conditions suggest potential for technical stabilization or a brief test toward the $4,400 moving average zone.

IV. Summary & Outlook

The breakdown in US-Iran peace expectations and US diplomatic pressure on Oman drove energy prices higher, reinforcing inflation fears and central bank tightening expectations. Consequently, gold broke below $4,400 under moving average pressure. Key focus sits on whether $4,386 holds as technical support and how prices react to resistance near $4,408.