I. Gold Consolidates Above $4,500

Spot gold maintained high-level consolidation during Friday's Asian session, trading near $4,528.37/oz (+0.21%). Following earlier volatility—where prices surged to $4,540.63 before dropping to $4,450.08 and recovering—the $4,500 psychological threshold continues to provide strong support. The rally remains anchored by the US Treasury's expanded long-term debt buyback program.

II. Treasury Signals Further Buyback Expansion

Treasury Secretary Bessent indicated that actual debt buybacks could exceed $4.0 billion per operation, arguing current yields overestimate economic stress. However, Treasury yields rebounded on Thursday (10-year to 4.698%, 30-year to 5.238%), reflecting market skepticism over whether buybacks can stabilize fiscal debt pressures exceeding $40 trillion.

III. Fed Minutes Highlight Inflation Risks Ahead of Jackson Hole

FOMC minutes re-emphasized inflation concerns, with St. Louis Fed President Musalem signaling openness to future policy adjustments. While CME FedWatch prices a 67.4% probability of no rate change in September, persistent inflation risks contrast with recent economic cooling. Market focus now turns to Fed Chair Warsh's upcoming Jackson Hole address.

IV. Middle East Geopolitics Drive Energy Price Spikes

Deadlocked US-Iran negotiations and threats of sanctions pushed crude oil benchmarks up over 2% to nearly $93.78/bbl. Rising energy costs and 5- to 10-year inflation expectations reinforce market worries over sticky price pressures.

Outlook

Holding above $4,500 keeps short-term momentum mildly bullish toward $4,540. A break below $4,500 would trigger a retest of lower breakout support near $4,450.