I. Spot Gold Extends Surge Past $4,650

Spot gold reached $4,653.80/oz (+1.08% / +$49.88), printing a fresh three-month high of $4,655.17. Gold gained over 5% last week, surging through $4,400, $4,500, and $4,600 resistance levels. US gold futures closed near $4,680.60 as Asian trading sustained bullish momentum.

II. US Treasury Expands Long-Bond Buybacks

The US Treasury doubled its Treasury buyback program from $2B to at least $4B per operation for 10-to-30-year bonds to stabilize bond market volatility as national debt crossed $40 trillion. Treasury Secretary Bessent signaled potential further expansions, driving US Treasury yields lower and pushing the US Dollar Index down to 98.84.

III. Hormuz Shipping Friction Persists

Iranian parliamentary committees approved measures to levy maritime and environmental fees on vessels navigating the Strait of Hormuz, where daily commercial ship transits remain severely depressed relative to pre-conflict levels. New US restrictions and Iranian countermeasures keep regional supply risks elevated.

IV. Bullish Market Sentiment Surges

The latest Kitco weekly survey shows 73% of institutional analysts and 78% of retail participants expect continued gold price gains. Capital inflows accelerated as gold climbed rapidly from ~$4,000 in early August to above $4,650, though elevated volatility is expected near highs.

V. Week Ahead: Jackson Hole & Core Macro Data

Market focus shifts to the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium featuring Federal Reserve Chair Warsh's inaugural address. Key US economic releases—including Core PCE inflation, Q2 GDP revisions, and Durable Goods orders—will guide forward rate path expectations.

Market Outlook

Spot gold holds firmly above $4,600 support. Immediate upside resistance sits near $4,670 and $4,700, while $4,600 serves as primary short-term support ahead of central bank speeches and macroeconomic data releases.