Market News Analysis
1. The market continues to digest the hawkish signal from the June FOMC meeting. Rate futures now price in an 89% chance of another 25-basis-point hike in both September and December, and expectations for rate cuts this year have basically disappeared. The US dollar index has stayed above 101, hitting a more than one-year high, while the 10-year Treasury yield remains near 4.5 percent. This keeps the holding cost of non-yielding precious metals under pressure.
2. The US May Core PCE data will be released tonight, and this is the inflation gauge the Fed watches most closely. The market expects the year-over-year reading to rise 3.4 percent. This report will directly affect expectations for the pace of future rate hikes and the interest rate path. If the data is hotter than expected, rate-hike expectations may strengthen further and gold and silver could keep falling. If inflation cools, a technical rebound may follow. Before the release, traders are mostly reducing positions and waiting, and activity in gold and silver has clearly slowed, with prices moving in a narrow range at lower levels.
3. Several major international banks, including Goldman Sachs, Bank of America, Deutsche Bank, and Citigroup, have cut their short-term price targets for gold and silver. Goldman Sachs lowered its end-2026 gold target from 5400 dollars to 4900 dollars, while Bank of America expects the Fed to raise rates three times this year. This more bearish outlook is pushing speculative money out of the market faster. Global gold ETF holdings saw net outflows of 4.27 billion dollars in a single week, the biggest since 2026, and institutional investors in Europe and the US are reducing precious metals exposure and moving into higher-yielding US Treasuries. This continued capital outflow is adding more pressure to any rebound in gold and silver.
Gold Technical Analysis
Daily chart: Gold opened the Asian session today at 4003.23 dollars per ounce. After yesterday’s sharp drop, price broke below the 4000 psychological level. The short-term trend remains bearish, and the market is still moving sideways at lower levels. Moving averages are still in a bearish crossover, so the overall structure remains weak. Traders can patiently wait for a new entry setup.
Intraday short-term 15-minute: Moving averages are currently aligned in a bearish order. If price breaks below the 20-period moving average at 3983.26, a short position may be considered. Stop loss can be set near the recent high around 4002.00, and the trade can be exited at a 2 to 1 reward-to-risk ratio.
Silver Technical Analysis
Daily chart: Silver opened today at 57.531 dollars per ounce. After yesterday’s sharp drop to a new recent low, prices remain in a low-level consolidation range during the Asian session. The daily chart is still in a bearish moving-average crossover, so the bias remains negative. Traders should patiently wait for a pullback toward the 20-period moving average.
Intraday short-term 15-minute: Moving averages are currently in a bearish alignment. If price breaks below the 20-period moving average at 57.058, a short position may be considered. Stop loss can be placed near the intraday high at 57.880, and the trade can be exited at a 2 to 1 reward-to-risk ratio.
Risk Warning
Trading in financial markets involves unpredictable risks, including the possible loss of principal. This analysis is for reference only and does not constitute direct investment advice. Investors should make independent judgments and decisions based on their own risk tolerance.