I. Fundamental Analysis

• Doha Technical Talks Conclude: The two-day indirect talks between the US and Iran in Doha have come to an end. This session focused primarily on two resolved issues: navigation through the Strait of Hormuz and the unfreezing of Iranian assets. The core nuclear issue was not mentioned during the talks. The next round of meetings is expected to be scheduled after July 9, following the funeral of Iran's late Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.

• Stark Discrepancies in US-Iran Stances: The White House claimed that progress on Iranian denuclearization is moving smoothly and that the talks yielded positive results. However, top Iranian officials released completely opposite signals. Two senior officials stated that Iran is determined to secure control over the Strait through military force and reaffirmed that it will begin collecting transit fees once the free-passage period ends in mid-August. Analysts point out that while the Strait of Hormuz remains open, the overall situation is still unstable and lacks transparency.

• Fed Chair's International Debut: Fed Chair Kevin Warsh completed his first international appearance since taking office at the ECB Forum. In a panel discussion alongside the governors of the ECB, the Bank of England, and the Bank of Canada, all four central bank heads jointly refused to provide interest rate forward guidance. Warsh emphasized that the Fed's target to bring inflation down to 2% is unshakeable and reaffirmed that the Fed's status as an independent central bank will not change.

• Economic Data and Gold's Performance: The US June ISM Manufacturing PMI dipped from 54 to 53.3. Although new orders and price indices slipped, input prices stayed high, and the indicator has now spent six consecutive months in expansionary territory. Additionally, the latest US June ADP private payrolls recorded 98,000 new jobs, missing the market expectation of 118,000. The weaker-than-expected employment data gave gold a boost. With the market waiting on the official non-farm payrolls report, spot gold climbed back up near $4,115.00 per ounce on Wednesday.

II. Cyclical Technical Analysis

• One-Hour Chart (Intraday Short-Term: Neutral):
• Trend Assessment: Short-term bulls and bears are locked in a tug-of-war. Intraday upward momentum has been generally flat, and there is a lack of a clear breakout direction.
• Indicator Monitoring: The RSI is tracking at 55.82, showing relatively mild short-term intraday fluctuations.

• Daily Chart (Medium- to Long-Term Trend: Sell):
• Trend Assessment: The larger cycle is clearly dominated by bears. Although a soft data print triggered a short-term bounce, the bearish pressure on the daily chart still provides a broader downward framework for swing trading.
• Indicator Monitoring: The RSI is sitting at 37.78, indicating the overall picture remains bearish.

III. Core Key Price Levels

• Key Resistance Above: 4,140.00 (The core technical resistance for the medium term and the hard stop-loss defense point for intraday trading).
• Bull-Bear Pivot Point: 4,025.00 (The midpoint of the range; if the chart price breaks below this level, bearish momentum is highly likely to accelerate further).

IV. Trading Execution Plan

Based on the clear bearish setup on the daily chart and the fading bounce momentum on the one-hour chart, today's trading will adopt a sell-on-rallies strategy:

• Strategic Direction: Sell on Rallies (Trend-Following Trade)
• Trading Signal: Sell
• Confidence Index: 65 / 100
• Entry Range: 4,000.00 – 4,050.00
• Range Midpoint: 4,025.00
• Stop-Loss Protection: 4,140.00
• Take-Profit Target: 3,795.00
• Risk-Reward Ratio: 1 : 2.00

Execution Details

• Position Management: Given that there is currently no clear single-sided breakout signal, market sentiment remains relatively cautious. Intraday holdings must strictly follow risk control requirements. It is recommended to trade with light positions, keeping the overall risk exposure capped within 5% of total capital. If the price rallies back near the entry midpoint of 4,025.00, you can consider building short positions in tranches. Avoid overtrading or heavy position loading over short-term market noise.

Risk Warning

The trading market carries unpredictable risks, including but not limited to the loss of principal. This analysis is for reference only and does not constitute direct investment advice. Investors should make independent judgments and autonomous decisions based on their own risk tolerance.