Market Fundamentals Analysis

The Hawkish Signals from the Fed's June Meeting Continue to Simmer, Driving the Probability of a September Rate Hike Up to 68%

The Federal Reserve's June 17–18 policy meeting, chaired by the newly appointed head Kevin Warsh, kept interest rates unchanged at 3.50%–3.75%. However, the dot plot revealed that 9 out of 18 officials expect at least one rate hike before the end of the year, marking a shift in the policy tone from cutting rates to holding them steady or tightening. In the press conference, Warsh emphasized that "there is still work to do on price stability," triggering strong market expectations for a September rate hike. The CME FedWatch pricing probability surged from 29% to 68%, pushing the US Dollar Index above the 101 mark and significantly weakening the appeal of gold as a non-yielding asset. Goldman Sachs lowered its year-end target price for gold from $5,400 to $4,900, further intensifying the pessimistic market sentiment.

The US Dollar Index Hits a One-Year High Above 101

The US Dollar Index climbed to 101.8 during intraday trading on June 24, reaching its highest level since April 2025, and continued to show strength on June 30, trading at 101.28. The 10-year US Treasury yield stood at 4.37%, the 2-year at 4.10%, and real interest rates (TIPS) came in at 2.14%. The hawkish shift in interest rate expectations has driven the continuous strengthening of the US dollar. This has caused local currencies in major traditional gold-consuming nations like India and Turkey to depreciate. With local gold prices remaining high, the absence of physical buying in the second quarter further exacerbated the price decline.

Geopolitical Premium Erasure Paired with Month-End ETF Redemptions

As progress continues on the US-Iran peace framework and shipping through the Strait of Hormuz returns to normal, crude oil prices have fallen back to a four-month low, largely erasing the geopolitical premium gold had previously built up. Data from Standard Chartered shows that approximately 298 tons of gold ETF holdings are currently sitting at a loss. Global gold ETFs saw a net outflow of 16 tons in May, and the end-of-month fund settlement cycle triggered concentrated institutional redemptions, where even a small amount of selling pressure managed to quickly drag gold prices down. June 30 marks the final trading day of the month, and tightening liquidity has further amplified the selling pressure.

Gold Technical Analysis

• Daily Level: Gold opened the Asian session today at $4,023.31 per ounce. It fell initially before rebounding during the day, touching a low of $3,942.57, though major variables remain on the macro front. Currently, the moving averages (MAs) are still in a death cross, reflecting a bearish trend. Traders can patiently wait for a new entry opportunity.
• Intraday Short-Term (15-Minute): The moving averages currently show a bearish alignment. The morning session offered a solid short entry point near $3,991.00. The current price is sitting between the short-term and long-term moving averages. If the price breaks below the 20 MA again, short positions can be added; if the price climbs back above the 80 MA, traders should wait for the next point of resonance between direction and price.

Silver Technical Analysis

• Daily Level: Silver opened today at $58.278 per ounce. It edged lower before bouncing back, maintaining a low-level consolidation overall. The daily chart shows moving averages in a death cross, pointing to a bearish direction. Patiently wait for an opportunity when the price retraces to the 20 MA. Currently, attention can be paid to the resistance level around $62.35, which is the high of the candlestick that set a new closing low.
• Intraday Short-Term (15-Minute): The moving averages are currently in a bearish alignment, but the price has managed to recover above the 80 MA. Wait for the price and the moving average direction to move back into alignment before considering trading opportunities.

Risk Warning

The trading market carries unpredictable risks, including but not limited to the loss of principal. This analysis is for reference only and does not constitute direct investment advice. Investors should make independent judgments and autonomous decisions based on their own risk tolerance.