I. Fundamental Analysis
US-Iran Doha Talks Show Divergence:
The US government previously announced talks between the US and Iran in Doha. Iran's Foreign Ministry denied this, stating no such meeting is scheduled, but revealed possible consultations on Tuesday involving the Strait of Hormuz issue. Both sides remain in diplomatic deadlock.
Iran Asserts Control Over Strait:
Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Gharibabadi emphasized that all passing vessels must follow Iran-designated routes through the Strait of Hormuz. Mine clearance in the strait will be handled solely by Iran, without cooperation from any country. The Revolutionary Guard warned that ships deviating from specified routes face safety risks.
Israel Signals Independent Action:
Israeli Defense Minister Katz stated the IDF is prepared for independent military action against Iran at any time. Hezbollah accused Israel of openly violating the ceasefire agreement, while Lebanon's parliament speaker warned that the tripartite framework could threaten national unity. Middle East geopolitics remains complex.
US Supreme Court Safeguards Fed Independence:
In a 5-4 ruling, the US Supreme Court blocked President Trump's attempt to fire Fed Governor Cook, affirming the president has no right to arbitrarily dismiss Fed governors. Cook is among the few opposing this year's rate hikes. This ruling legally protects the Fed's independence in monetary policy and rate decisions.
White House Intervenes in Energy Prices:
President Trump publicly demanded all US gas stations immediately drop gasoline prices to around 2.50/gallon.
II. Cycle Technical Analysis
1-Hour Cycle (Intraday Short-Term: Sell)
Trend Assessment: 1-hour technical indicators clearly point to a sell direction. The market shows clear bearish selling pressure dominance, with short-term price space under strong suppression and weak rebound momentum. Intraday upside potential is limited.
Indicator Monitoring: RSI at 22.97, in oversold territory; downside momentum extremely strong.
4-Hour Cycle (Medium-Term Trend: Neutral)
Trend Assessment: Medium-term trend is neutral oscillation; no clear long-term trend fully established. Upside correction momentum slowing, with short-cycle selling pressure currently dominant technically.
Indicator Monitoring: RSI at 32.01; overall bearish control.
III. Core Key Levels
Upper Key Resistance: 4085.00 - 4090.00 (medium-term core technical resistance zone)
Lower Key Support: 4000.00 - 4009.00 (psychological integer level and major support band)
IV. Trading Execution Plan
Based on the clear 1-hour bearish selling pressure dominance, intraday trading adopts a sell-on-rally strategy:
Strategy Direction: Sell on rallies (momentum trading)
Trading Signal: Sell
Confidence Index: 85/100
Entry Range: 4026.00-4033.00
Range Midpoint: 4029.50
Stop Loss: 4087.13
Take Profit Target: 3914.25
Risk-Reward Ratio: 1:2.00
[Execution Details]
Position Management:
Enter with standard position sizing for intraday, controlling overall risk exposure. If price rebounds to touch 4035.00-4040.00 resistance, consider adding to shorts in batches if risk control limits aren't breached.
Emergency Risk Control:
Lock 4087.13 as the hard intraday risk redline (above 4-hour resistance). If unexpected bullish news causes volume breakout above 4087.13 stop, short structure fails—exit all shorts unconditionally and switch to observe.
Risk Warning
Trading markets involve unpredictable risks, including but not limited to principal loss. This analysis is for reference only and does not constitute direct investment advice. Investors should judge independently based on their risk tolerance and make autonomous decisions.