Market News Analysis
US-Iran Weekend Clashes Escalate into Complex Situation:
On June 29, markets digested weekend Middle East developments: US forces and Iran exchanged attacks in the Persian Gulf, with a Qatari tanker damaged in the Strait of Hormuz. Iran skipped scheduled technical talks, citing the US failure to meet agreement conditions, while Trump issued another tough statement. The volatile situation drove international oil prices up over 1%, raising market concerns that rising energy prices will reinforce inflation stickiness and extend the Fed's high interest rate cycle.
Fed Rate Hike Expectations Continue to Build:
Interest rate futures on June 29 priced a 70%+ probability of a 25 basis point hike in September, with at least one hike this year nearly fully priced in. The US dollar index held above the 101 level at a 13-month high, 10-year Treasury yields stayed around 4.5%, keeping holding costs for non-yielding gold and silver elevated. Markets are focused on Thursday's US June non-farm payrolls report, expecting 113,000 jobs added; strong data would further solidify the hike path. Ahead of the data, investors are generally reducing positions and staying sidelined, leading to lower trading activity in gold and silver with an overall weak oscillatory pattern.
Gold Technical Analysis
Daily Timeframe: Asian session opened at 4088.03 dollars per ounce today, with intraday low oscillation to a low of 4039.36 dollars. Macro factors remain highly variable. Moving averages are still in death cross configuration, showing bearish trend; patiently await new entry opportunities.
Intraday Short-Term (15-Minute): Moving averages currently bearishly aligned. Short on break below 20MA at 4057.00, stop loss at recent high of 4075.00, exit on 1:2 risk-reward ratio.
Silver Technical Analysis
Daily Timeframe: Opened at 58.752 dollars per ounce today, with intraday dip followed by recovery but overall low oscillation. Daily chart in moving average death cross, directionally bearish; patiently await pullback to 20MA opportunity.
Intraday Short-Term (15-Minute): Moving averages bearishly aligned, price between 20MA and 80MA. Wait for short opportunity after break below 20MA.
Risk Warning
Trading markets involve unpredictable risks, including but not limited to principal loss. This analysis is for reference only and does not constitute direct investment advice. Investors should make independent judgments and decisions based on their own risk tolerance.
This is general information only and not financial advice. For personal guidance, please talk to a licensed professional.