Trading Execution Plan
Based on the overall bearish pressure pattern across 4-hour and daily timeframes, adopt a sell-on-rallies strategy for intraday trading:
Strategy Direction: Sell on Rallies (Trend-Following)
Trading Signal: Sell
Confidence Index: 65 / 100
Entry Zone: 4040.00 - 4080.00
Zone Midpoint: 4060.00
Stop Loss: 4124.00
Take-Profit Target: 3932.00
Risk-Reward Ratio: 1 : 2.00
Weekend Full Timeline (ET):
Thursday: First Shots Fired
A Singapore-flagged cargo ship was struck by an Iranian drone or missile near Oman, with the bridge destroyed. The UN's International Maritime Organization (IMO) halted its two-day-old Strait evacuation escort plan. The U.S. accused Iran of violating the 14-point ceasefire memorandum signed on June 17, followed by U.S. airstrikes on Iran's southern coast that evening.
Friday: Israel-Lebanon Signs Framework Agreement
Before U.S.-Iran tensions resolved, Israel and the Lebanese government signed a U.S.-brokered agreement:
- Demands Hezbollah disarm; Israel withdraws phased from southern Lebanon.
- IDF maintains "security zone" in the south until Hezbollah disarms.
Saturday: Hezbollah Tears Up Agreement, U.S. Launches Second Airstrikes on Iran
- Hezbollah leader declared the agreement "invalid" the next day, calling it a "surrender to Israel" and condemning Lebanon's government for unilateral concessions and national betrayal. Hezbollah supporters protested in Beirut streets that night.
- The Panama-flagged tanker "Kiku," carrying 2 million barrels of Qatari crude, was attacked by Iranian drones in the Strait of Hormuz.
The U.S. announced a second round of airstrikes on five Iranian coastal outposts that day, targeting "surveillance infrastructure, communication systems, air defense positions, drone storage facilities, and minelaying capabilities."
Post-strike, Iran's Revolutionary Guard warned: U.S. bases "will experience hell in the coming days."
Sunday: Iran Missiles Hit U.S. Bases, Trump Threatens "Iran Will Cease to Exist"—Then Agrees to Ceasefire
Iran's Revolutionary Guard launched missiles and drones at 8 U.S. military facilities in Kuwait and Bahrain. Kuwaiti forces intercepted two ballistic missiles; U.S. reported no major casualties or facility damage.
Trump posted threats on social media: "We no longer need to stay rational; we will achieve our original goals by military means. By then, the nation of Iran will no longer exist!"
However, the same day, a senior U.S. official reported: U.S. and Iran have agreed to halt hostilities, with talks planned for Tuesday in Qatar. "All vessels can now pass freely through the Strait."
Fed Chair Kevin Warsh faces new tests this week: attending a high-profile economic conference in Portugal, plus the U.S. Supreme Court ruling on President Trump's firing of Fed Governor Lisa Cook—which could decide the Fed's independence. Ruling possibly as early as Tuesday on whether Governor Cook keeps her position.
II. Timeframe Technical Analysis
1-Hour Timeframe (Intraday Short-Term: Neutral)
Trend Assessment: Short-term consolidation in a low-range weak pattern. After consecutive declines, technical short-covering emerged, but lacking sustained core buying, upside momentum is limited—price now nears short-term EMA resistance.
Indicator Monitor: RSI at 52.57, entering oscillation.
Daily Timeframe (Medium-to-Long-Term Trend: Bearish Bias)
Trend Assessment: Medium-long structure remains weak; weekly closes bearish for four straight weeks, showing heavy overall downside pressure. Multi-timeframe indicators neutral, but momentum clearly favors weakness—no clear bottom reversal signals yet.
Indicator Monitor: RSI at 36.39, nearing oversold but not confirmed stabilization; medium-term trend bearish.
III. Core Key Levels
Upper Key Resistance: 4100.00 (psychological level and primary short-term strong resistance)
Lower Key Support: 4000.00 (psychological support; tested multiple times without break, but loss opens further downside)
[Execution Details]
Technically, short/medium/long three timeframes are neutral-to-bearish, with rebound momentum lacking. Intraday: Recommend sell-on-rallies; wait for pullback to midpoint 4060.00 for light, phased short entries—avoid blind chasing at lows.
Emergency Risk Control:
Lock 4124.00 as intraday hard stop-loss redline (above prior highs). If bulls volume-break and hold above 4124.00, current bearish technical logic is invalidated—exit shorts unconditionally and observe, targeting prior lows near 3932.00.
Risk Warning
Trading markets carry unpredictable risks, including but not limited to principal loss. This analysis is for reference only and does not constitute direct investment advice. Investors should make independent judgments based on their own risk tolerance and decide autonomously.
This is general information only and not financial advice. For personal guidance, please talk to a licensed professional.