The U.S. Commerce Department announced on Thursday: May PCE price index surges 4.1% YoY, breaking through 4% for the first time in three years and hitting a new high since April 2023! Core PCE rises 3.4% YoY, the largest increase since October 2023.

Even more alarming, consumer spending didn't retreat amid inflation but jumped 0.7%, propped up by advance tax refunds and stock market gains. BMO Chief Economist Anderson warns: "Services inflation won't be tamed easily by falling energy prices; the hawk-dove battle will only intensify."

Markets have priced in an 80% probability of a September rate hike—the Fed under Powell is sharpening its knives toward interest rates.

Labor market remains resilient: Initial jobless claims drop to 215K, far exceeding expectations

U.S. Labor Department data shows initial jobless claims for the week ending June 20 plunged 12K to 215K, well below the expected 225K. Continuing claims rose to 1.821M. The labor market's resilience gives the Fed more ammunition for hikes.

Market Summary:

Bulls Break Out Strongly: Gold showed a powerful stepwise rally today, surging from lows of $3,983.02 with strong volume. The 1-hour chart formed a massive bullish candle piercing the $4,034.00-$4,050.00 zone, peaking intraday at $4,054.09. 15-min and 1-hour structures align bullish, with EMAs in bullish array—bulls maintain strong initiative.

Indicators Signal Overheating:

Despite overall upward momentum, 1-hour STOCHRSI and Williams %R are deeply overbought. This indicates short-term price pullback too rapid, with high retracement risk for chasing highs at $4,048.00-$4,054.00—avoid emotional buying in this zone.

Intraday Trading Strategy:

Buy on Dips (Primary Approach): Reject any high-level chasing. For steady ops, wait for technical pullbacks, focusing on support zones at $4,040.00-$4,043.00 and $4,034.00-$4,038.00 for stabilization signals. On long lower wicks or bullish engulfing, enter longs decisively; stops below $4,034.00 or $4,028.00, targeting $4,054.00-$4,058.00.

Short on Highs (Secondary Approach): Given multi-timeframe bullish bias, shorts only as defensive scalps post-fakeouts. If price repeatedly tests $4,054.00-$4,058.00 and rejects, dropping swiftly below $4,050.00 with long upper wicks or bearish engulfing, lightly position a fakeout short; stops above $4,062.00-$4,065.00, targeting $4,040.00 and $4,034.00.

Risk Warning

Trading markets carry unpredictable risks, including but not limited to principal loss. This analysis is for reference only and does not constitute direct investment advice. Investors should make independent judgments based on their own risk tolerance and decide autonomously.

This is general information only and not financial advice. For personal guidance, please talk to a licensed professional.