Market Fundamentals Analysis

• US June Non-Farm Payrolls Fall Short of Expectations: Released on the evening of July 2, the June non-farm payrolls showed an increase of just 57,000 jobs, less than half of the market consensus estimate of 113,000. Additionally, data for the previous two months was revised down by a combined 74,000 jobs, signaling a visible loss of expansionary momentum in the US labor market.

• Following the release, the market quickly recalibrated the Fed's policy path: the probability of a September rate hike dropped from 64% to 55%, while the odds of a July hike slipped to 16%, showing a significant cooling in full-year rate hike expectations.

• Chair Warsh's Dovish Framing Concurs with Weak Employment Data: Speaking at the ECB Sintra Forum earlier this week, Fed Chair Kevin Warsh explicitly stated that upside risks to US inflation have pulled back over the past month, with inflation expectations trending milder, indicating no urgency to hike rates immediately. The market interpreted this commentary as a dovish signal from the newly appointed chair.

• Paired with the soft payrolls report confirming a wait-and-see policy bias, major Wall Street firms like Goldman Sachs now project the Fed will hold interest rates steady for the remainder of the year. As policy-side headwinds fade, margin valuation pressures on non-yielding precious metals are easing, lending strong macro support to the gold and silver bounce.

• US Dollar Index Suffers Largest Drop in Two Months: Relentlessly battered by the weak data print and dovish policy signals, the US Dollar Index tumbled over 0.8% in a single session, losing the 101 handle and logging its biggest single-day decline in two months. Concurrently, the 10-year US Treasury yield pulled back below 4.4%.

• The sliding dollar directly boosted the valuation of dollar-denominated precious metals. Furthermore, a short squeeze from trailing short positions, combined with technical short-covering flows ahead of the Independence Day long weekend, collectively amplified the magnitude of the rally, lifting spot gold by over 2% and silver by nearly 3% intraday.

Gold Technical Analysis

• Daily Chart: Gold opened the Asian session today at $4,122.88 per ounce, logging an intraday upward bounce to touch a high of $4,195.50. Currently, the moving averages remain in a dead cross formation, maintaining a broader bearish structure. Traders can patiently wait for a fresh structural setup to emerge.
• Intraday Short-Term (15-Minute Chart): Moving averages are currently exhibiting a bullish alignment. A long entry can be considered near the $4,147.30 support zone, using a stop-loss reference below the intraday low at $4,121.15, aiming for an exit based on a 2:1 risk-to-reward ratio.

Silver Technical Analysis

• Daily Chart: Silver opened today at $60.894 per ounce, extending its upward bounce on robust bullish momentum to hit an intraday high of $62.883. On the daily timeframe, the moving averages remain in a dead cross formation, meaning the broader macro direction is still tilted to the downside. Patiently wait for a retest of the 20-period moving average.
• Intraday Short-Term (15-Minute Chart): Moving averages are currently showing a bullish alignment. The morning session layout offered a long entry near $61.406, using a stop-loss reference below the intraday low around the $60.726 line, targeting a 2:1 risk-to-reward ratio. If you missed this entry, patiently wait for a pullback to the moving averages and enter long on a clean breakout confirmation.

Risk Warning

Trading markets carry unpredictable risks, including but not limited to the loss of principal. This analysis is for reference only and does not constitute direct investment advice. Investors should make independent judgments and autonomous decisions based on their own risk tolerance.