I. Fundamental Analysis
Full-Scale Escalation of US-Iran Military Confrontation: The situation in the Middle East continued to deteriorate on Friday. The US Central Command announced massive strikes on approximately 90 military targets inside Iran, causing at least 14 deaths and 78 injuries, with missiles reportedly hitting the defensive perimeter of the Bushehr Nuclear Power Plant. Subsequently, the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps launched a comprehensive counterattack.
Shipping in the Strait of Hormuz Grinds to a Near Halt: Impacted by sudden military exchanges and mutual missile strikes, commercial tanker transit through the Strait of Hormuz has plunged into virtual paralysis. Only two tankers passed through the waterway on Thursday, and some war risk underwriters have advised shipping companies to suspend sailing plans in the area, driving daily freight rates surging to nearly $300,000.
Crude Oil Prices Retreat on Economic Concerns: Despite severe threats to supply in the strait and Russia's announced ban on diesel exports, the crude oil market remains worried about global demand prospects. This is constrained by economic factors including inflationary anxieties triggered by the Fed minutes, interest rates staying higher for longer, and rising manufacturing inflation in China. Consequently, Brent crude futures fell about 2.00% on the day, closing at $76.30.
Institutions Revise Gold Price Projections: After dropping to a weekly low on Wednesday, spot gold rebounded by more than 1% on Thursday, pushed by low-level bargain hunting and a slight retreat in the US dollar, reclaiming a position above $4,120.00 per ounce. Concurrently, HSBC released its latest report, downgrading its average gold price forecast for 2026 from $4,864.00 to $4,560.00, and its 2027 forecast from $5,000.00 to $4,925.00, primarily citing the hawkish tilt in the Federal Reserve's monetary policy and long-term strength in the US dollar exerting pressure on precious metals.
II. Cyclical Technical Analysis
One-Hour Cycle (Intraday Short-Term: Buy)
Trend Assessment: Short-term bulls launched a corrective rebound driven by non-farm payrolls and bottom-fishing flows. The price has currently broken above the prior weak consolidation box, keeping short-term momentum biased to the upside.
Indicator Monitoring: RSI is recorded at 53.27, with short-term control temporarily held by the bulls.
Four-Hour Cycle (Medium-Term Trend: Neutral)
Trend Assessment: The medium-term structure generally maintains a volatile consolidation pattern. Although short-term prices have recovered somewhat, the moving average system has not formed a cohesive one-way expansion, making medium-term upward strength relatively limited.
Indicator Monitoring: RSI is recorded at 52.74, showing low volatility across the medium cycle.
III. Trading Execution Plan
Since the 1-hour cycle (Buy) and the 4-hour cycle (Neutral) have not formed a cross-timeframe alignment, and the current price has broken upward away from the core observation range, a wait-and-see strategy of continuous observation and staying flat will be adopted for intraday trading:
Strategy Direction: Continuous Observation (Wait-and-See Strategy)
Confidence Index: 40 / 100
Observation Range: 4042.50 - 4109.80
Range Midpoint: 4081.40
Current Price: 4130.90
【Execution Details】
Technically, although the 1-hour cycle is dominated by a buy signal, both the 4-hour and daily higher timeframes are defined as neutral. The core observation range set by the market is currently 4042.50 to 4109.80, and the current market price is trading around 4121.51, effectively breaking above the upper boundary of the observation range. Given that the short-term rebound momentum has not yet been confirmed by cross-timeframe alignment on the 4-hour and daily charts, the current position does not constitute an ideal recommended entry zone.
Risk Warning
The trading market involves unpredictable risks, including but not limited to the loss of principal. This analysis is for reference only and does not constitute direct investment advice. Investors should make independent judgments and autonomous decisions based on their own risk tolerance.