Market News Analysis
US Dollar Index Retreats to One-Week Low Coupled with Technical Bottom-Fishing: On July 10, the US dollar index weakened for the third consecutive trading day, falling to a one-week low. This lowered the precious metals purchasing costs for non-US dollar holders. Coupled with the low-level bargain-hunting funds triggered after gold prices previously hit a one-week low, spot gold fluctuated within a narrow range around the $4,120/ounce mark, while spot silver traded near $60/ounce, closing slightly higher on the day. However, under the overarching suppression of intensified Fed rate hike expectations throughout the week, both gold and silver still posted weekly losses of over 1%, leaving rebound momentum relatively limited.
Mixed Catalysts for the US-Iran Situation: Market news on July 10 showed that mediating parties such as Qatar and Pakistan are pushing for a resumption of talks between the US and Iran. Trump publicly stated that Iran has a strong desire to reach an agreement, and the marginal cooling of geopolitical tensions has driven oil prices down from their peaks. This alleviated market worries regarding an inflationary rebound, indirectly supporting gold and silver. However, sporadic conflicts persisted in southern Iran following previous US attacks, and maritime shipping risks in the Strait of Hormuz have not been fully resolved. Oil prices still recorded significant gains over the full week, keeping anxieties over sticky inflation active and creating a mixed multi-directional impact on gold and silver.
Fed September Rate Hike Expectations Remain High: On July 10, the interest rate futures market priced the probability of a 25-basis-point Fed rate hike in September at approximately 62%, and expectations for at least one rate hike within the year have not faded, with residual effects from the hawkish signals in the June meeting minutes still lingering. Investors generally maintained a wait-and-see stance, awaiting next week's release of the US June CPI data and Fed Chairman Warsh's congressional testimony to further clarify the policy path. This cautious trading sentiment makes it difficult for gold and silver to break out into a structural trend rebound, maintaining a broader range-bound consolidation pattern.
Gold Technical Analysis
Daily Level: Opening at $4,125.33/ounce during today's Asian session, gold prices oscillated within a narrow range without clear trend opportunities. Currently, the moving averages remain in a dead cross state. Since yesterday's closing price broke below the 20 MA position near $4,105.00, traders can build medium-term short positions, using the recent relative high near $4,203.00 as a stop-loss reference. The first target is the previous low on the left, or exiting at a 2:1 risk-reward ratio.
Intraday Short-Term (15 Minutes): Moving averages currently present a bearish alignment. Wait for a pullback to the moving averages followed by a breakdown below the 20 MA line to enter short positions; maintain a wait-and-see stance for now.
Silver Technical Analysis
Daily Level: Opening at $59.828/ounce today, silver prices oscillated within a narrow range without trend opportunities. The daily level remains in a moving average dead cross state, keeping the broader direction bearish; wait patiently for an opportunity to retest the 20 MA.
Intraday Short-Term (15 Minutes): Moving averages currently present a bearish alignment with the current price trapped between the moving averages. Wait for the price to break below the 20 MA line again before seeking short entry opportunities.
Risk Warning
The trading market involves unpredictable risks, including but not limited to the loss of principal. This analysis is for reference only and does not constitute direct investment advice. Investors should make independent judgments and autonomous decisions based on their own risk tolerance.