Market News Analysis
US-Iran Weekend Conflict Escalates, Iran Announces Closure of the Strait of Hormuz: On July 13, the market digested over-the-weekend shifts in the Middle East situation. The US military launched a new round of strikes against Iranian military targets, and the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps immediately retaliated against US bases in the Gulf region, announcing an indefinite closure of the Strait of Hormuz—a vital global energy transit corridor. Driven by supply disruption anxieties, Brent crude oil surged over 3% in a single day to crack above $78/barrel, while WTI crude oil climbed to $73.6/barrel.
Fed Rate Hike Expectations Within the Year Continue to Suppress Precious Metals: On July 13, the CME interest rate futures market priced the probability of a 25-basis-point Fed rate hike before the end of the year near 90%. The hawkish signals unleashed by the June meeting minutes continue to ferment, with officials broadly believing that inflation risks remain tilted to the upside, reincorporating rate hike options into policy debates. Supported by this framework, the US dollar index rose to a periodic high of 101.12, while the 10-year US Treasury yield held steady near 4.5%. The cost of carry for non-yielding gold and silver keeps elevating, which, coupled with valuation strains from USD denomination, keeps the broad precious metals sector tracing a weak operational path with noticeably deficient rebound momentum.
Market Awaits This Week's US June CPI Data and Fed Chairman Warsh's Congressional Hearing: On July 13, investors generally managed their positions with a wait-and-see stance, awaiting Wednesday's release of the US June CPI inflation report and Chairman Warsh's debut congressional hearing since taking office. Both events will directly clarify the subsequent rate hike path and policy alignment. Concurrently, global gold ETFs extended their net outflow trend, with SPDR Gold ETF holdings recording a cumulative reduction of nearly 20 tons from their June peak. Mainstream institutions including HSBC and JPMorgan Chase downgraded their annualized gold price forecasts, as speculative capital continues to leak from precious metals toward high-yielding US Treasury assets, with capital bloodletting further expanding short-term gold and silver volatility.
Gold Technical Analysis
Daily Level: Opening at $4,104.41/ounce during today's Asian session, gold prices gapped lower and trended downward under the impact of the US-Iran conflict, hitting an intraday low of $4,043.88. Currently, the moving averages remain in a dead cross state. Short positions opened near the $4,105.00 line can be held continuously, with a stop loss referenced near the recent relative high of $4,203.00, targeting the previous low on the left or exiting at a 2:1 risk-reward ratio.
Intraday Short-Term (15 Minutes): Moving averages currently present a bearish alignment. Upon breaking below the 20 MA line at $4,058.00, traders can enter short positions, using the upper high near $4,070.00 as a stop-loss reference, exiting at a 2:1 risk-reward ratio.
Silver Technical Analysis
Daily Level: Opening at $59.857/ounce today, silver gapped lower and trended downward during the session, hitting a low of $57.690, demonstrating powerful bearish dominance. The daily timeframe remains in a moving average dead cross state, keeping the broader direction bearish; wait patiently for an opportunity to retest the 20 MA.
Intraday Short-Term (15 Minutes): Moving averages currently present a bearish alignment with the current price running beneath the 20 MA line. Wait for a pullback to the moving averages followed by a breakdown to consider short entry opportunities.
Risk Warning
The trading market involves unpredictable risks, including but not limited to the loss of principal. This analysis is for reference only and does not constitute direct investment advice. Investors should make independent judgments and autonomous decisions based on their own risk tolerance.