I. Fundamental Analysis
US-Iran Conflict and the Strait "Forced Fee" Crisis: The Middle East conflict has entered a white-hot phase of comprehensive escalation. US President Trump loudly announced the reinstatement of a full naval blockade on Iran and declared that the United States would become the "protector of the Strait of Hormuz."
Trump proposed a highly controversial plan, demanding a mandatory 20% "security protection fee" on all commercial cargo transiting the strait, which is estimated to reach $250 million daily based on current traffic volume. At the political level, Trump has submitted a notification of hostile activities to Congress, bypassing congressional limitations to reopen a fresh 60-day window for military actions overseas. Meanwhile, Trump stated that he would completely destroy the Iranian nuclear facility "Pickaxe Mountain."
Consecutive Bombing and Comprehensive Attacks on Shipping Lanes: The US military has conducted airstrikes against Iran for the third consecutive night, causing serial explosions at multiple Iranian military facilities. In retaliation, Iran used cruise missiles to strike two large UAE oil tankers, resulting in casualties, while launching a massive barrage of anti-ship missiles and drones at US military bases in Kuwait. Currently, shipping throughput across the entire strait has plummeted by 52% over the past three days, grinding to a virtual halt.
White House Fiscal Deficit: The latest report released by the US Department of the Treasury showed that, heavily impacted by the Supreme Court's prior ruling that tariffs were illegal and forcing a tax refund of $4.92 billion, the US fiscal deficit for June abruptly spiked to $12 billion.
Crude Oil Market Aggressive 9% Surge: The risk of a forced blockade on the strait ignited energy markets. On Monday, international crude oil futures recorded an astonishing single-day surge, with Brent crude futures skyrocketing 9.6% to break past $85 per barrel and WTI crude futures jumping in tandem to $79.79, with both metrics hitting their largest single-day dollar gains since the outbreak of the US-Iran conflict.
II. Cyclical Technical Analysis
One-Hour Cycle (Intraday Short-Term: Sell)
Trend Assessment: The 1-hour technical chart exhibits a clear high-volume breakdown, tracking a single-way downward trajectory. The price has consecutively cracked below the psychological thresholds of 4100.00 and 4050.00 in a short timeframe. Although the price might experience a technical weak throwback at any moment due to the rapid slide tapping oversold boundaries, the broad market control rests firmly in the hands of the bears, with rebound heights projected to remain heavily capped.
Indicator Monitoring: The RSI index reads 30.18, entering deep into overextended oversold territory, showing that downward momentum remains robust.
Four-Hour Cycle (Medium-Term Trend: Neutral)
Trend Assessment: The medium-term trajectory is currently defined as neutral. Despite the exceptionally severe short-term markdown, on higher timeframes, the price is approaching the medium-term defensive boundaries of long-term buyers. The RSI indicator is also hovering near its oversold tipping point. Since a full transition into a structural single-way bear market has not been entirely confirmed across the macro framework, precautions must be taken against disorderly wide-amplitude whipsaws at these low levels.
Indicator Monitoring: RSI stands at 33.53, nearing the threshold of oversold territory, with total medium-term momentum tilting visibly toward the bears.
III. Trading Execution Plan
Given the clear bearish-dominated selling pressure on the 1-hour chart, as well as gold's weak macro performance under the dual strain of a strong US dollar and high real interest rates where safe-haven properties have failed to trigger, a sell-on-rallies strategy will be adopted for intraday trading:
Strategy Direction: Sell on Rallies (Trend-Following Trade)
Trading Signal: Sell
Confidence Index: 85.00 / 100.00
Entry Range: 4000.00 - 4070.00
Range Midpoint: 4035.00
Stop Loss Protection: 4050.00
Take Profit Target: 3977.50
Risk-Reward Ratio: 1 : 3.83
【Execution Details】
Entry Rhythm Management: Given that the 1-hour RSI indicator has dipped into oversold territory, blindly chasing shorts directly at the bottom runs the short-term risk of being whipsawed by a technical counter-trend throwback. The ideal building approach intraday is to stay patient for a weak upward retracement. When the price rallies to test the range midpoint near 4035.00, traders can progressively scale into short positions to lock in an excellent risk-reward profile.
Risk Warning
The trading market involves unpredictable risks, including but not limited to the loss of principal. This analysis is for reference only and does not constitute direct investment advice. Investors should make independent judgments and autonomous decisions based on their own risk tolerance.