Market News Analysis
US-Iran Conflict Escalates, Trump Reinstates Naval Blockade on the Strait of Hormuz: On July 14, the market continued to digest the impact of the deteriorating Middle East situation. The US military officially announced a comprehensive naval blockade against Iran, causing shipping risks in the Strait of Hormuz to skyrocket. International crude oil surged over 9% in a single day, marking its largest single-day gain of the year, with Brent crude approaching $82 per barrel. The primary market trading logic shifted from traditional safe-haven buying to a chain of "climbing oil prices to inflationary rebound to prolonged Fed high-interest rates," as energy-driven inflationary pressures reinforced rate-hike expectations.
Fed Governor Waller Releases Hawkish Signals: On July 14, Federal Reserve Governor Waller stated publicly that the central bank should consider hiking rates in the near term if the June core inflation readings turn out elevated, directly amplifying market anxieties over policy tightening. Current interest rate futures are pricing the probability of a September rate hike at 68%, with expectations for at least one rate hike within the year nearing full pricing. With the 10-year US Treasury yield remaining at elevated levels and the US dollar index holding firm above the 101 mark, the cost of carry for non-yielding gold and silver continues to rise. Coupled with the approach of two heavyweight events tonight—the US June CPI data release and Fed Chairman Warsh's congressional hearing—investors generally managed positions with a wait-and-see stance, keeping precious metals locked in a weak operational pattern.
US June CPI Data Lands Tonight as a Major Market Event: On the evening of July 14 Beijing time, the US June Consumer Price Index will be released. The market anticipates that core CPI year-on-year growth will soften to around 2.5% from 2.9% in May. This data will directly dictate the Federal Reserve's subsequent rate-hike trajectory. Ahead of the release, the market is pricing in bearish expectations, causing the US dollar index to drift slightly lower intraday.
Gold Technical Analysis
Daily Level: Opening at $4,001.44/ounce during today's Asian session, gold prices oscillated at lower levels and edged slightly higher, lacking high-quality trending opportunities. Currently, the moving averages remain in a dead cross state. Short positions built near the $4,105.00 line can be held continuously, with stop losses moved to $4,105.00 to lock in a break-even setup, targeting the previous low on the left or exiting at a 2:1 risk-reward ratio.
Intraday Short-Term (15 Minutes): Moving averages currently present a bearish alignment with the price running above the 80 MA. Wait for price and moving average direction to align in resonance before seeking trading opportunities.
Silver Technical Analysis
Daily Level: Opening at $57.631/ounce today, silver oscillated at lower levels and edged slightly higher during the session, offering poor trading opportunities. The daily level remains in a moving average dead cross state, keeping the broader direction bearish; wait patiently for an opportunity to retest the 20 MA.
Intraday Short-Term (15 Minutes): Moving averages currently present a bearish alignment with the price running above the 80 MA. Wait for price and moving average direction to align before seeking trading opportunities.
Risk Warning
The trading market involves unpredictable risks, including but not limited to the loss of principal. This analysis is for reference only and does not constitute direct investment advice. Investors should make independent judgments and autonomous decisions based on their own risk tolerance.