I. Fundamental Analysis
Full-Scale Escalation of US-Iran Conflict, Blockade Officially Takes Effect: The situation in the Middle East has completely spun out of control, rendering the ceasefire agreement signed on June 17 a dead letter. US President Trump announced the reinstatement of a military blockade targeting all Iranian ports. Trump issued a final ultimatum, threatening that the US military would directly strike Iran's power plants and bridges next week if Tehran refuses to return to the negotiating table. Currently, the US military has deployed more than 20 warships and hundreds of military aircraft to the Gulf region, with a new round of airstrikes fully underway.
Fierce Iranian Retaliation and Channel Paralysis: In the face of the high-pressure US blockade, the Iranian Ministry of Foreign Affairs stated it would never compromise under military threats, declaring a re-closure of the Strait of Hormuz. The Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps immediately launched retaliatory attacks against US military bases and facilities in multiple Middle Eastern countries. Concurrently, 7 commercial vessels have been attacked in the strait over the past week.
Oil Prices Skyrocket, Ceasefire Dividend Quickly Fades: The substantive closure of the strait and attacks on oil tankers ignited energy markets. Brent crude futures closed above $85 per barrel on Tuesday, refreshing its highest level since mid-June, logging a staggering cumulative surge of 15% over the past seven days. The average retail gasoline price across the US has soared to $3.86 per gallon. Analysis firm Gas Buddy forecasts that gasoline prices will return to the $4 per gallon threshold within the next 7 to 10 days, while diesel is expected to breach $5 per gallon.
Fed Chairman Warsh's Aggressive Hawkish Debut at Hearing: Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh completed his debut semi-annual congressional testimony before the House of Representatives on Tuesday. In response to questioning from lawmakers, Warsh vowed that the central bank's independence is sacrosanct and emphasized that external political interference would be shut out. Concerning the CPI data released on the same day, Warsh adopted an extremely cautious stance, highlighting "zero tolerance" for inflation, reiterating that the 2% inflation target "remains far from finished," and explicitly stating that the Federal Reserve would not declare "mission accomplished" based on a single data point.
CPI Slows Down Beyond Expectations, but Fails to Defuse Inflation: The US Bureau of Labor Statistics reported on Tuesday that the June CPI rose 3.5% year-on-year, printing below the 3.8% forecast and the 4.2% prior reading, while the core CPI rose 2.6% year-on-year. However, this heavy drop was primarily driven by a 5.7% month-on-month plunge in energy prices during June's ceasefire window, making it a highly lagging data point. With the US-Iran conflict currently reigniting and oil prices surging once again, the market anticipates a retaliatory rebound in July's inflation data, leaving the implied probability of a September Fed rate hike holding steady at approximately 53%.
II. Deep Cyclical Technical Analysis
Four-Hour Cycle (Medium-Term Trend: Neutral)
Trend Assessment: The 4-hour chart trajectory continues to fluctuate within a broader consolidation range. The price is currently locked in a tug-of-war near the middle band of the Bollinger Bands, with the moving average system exhibiting a converged pattern. Neither bullish nor bearish forces have managed to generate high-volume directional momentum.
Indicator Monitoring: RSI stands at 44.69, consolidating within the neutral-to-weak range.
One-Hour Cycle (Intraday Short-Term: Neutral)
Trend Assessment: The short-term timeframe direction is similarly defined as neutral. Following the previous high-volume plunge, gold prices bounced briefly yesterday on the back of bullish CPI support, but were immediately capped by hawkish monetary policy commentary. Currently, the market lacks clear direction, undergoing an orderly post-drop horizontal correction within the middle of the $4,020.00 to $4,070.00 box.
Indicator Monitoring: RSI is tracking at 46.36, indicating flat short-term momentum.
III. Trading Execution Plan
Given that the short-, medium-, and long-term technical metrics are all currently defined as neutral consolidation, while macroeconomic fundamentals remain pressured by inflation warnings stemming from skyrocketing oil prices and Warsh's hawkish posture, a sell-on-rallies strategy will be adopted for intraday trading.
Strategy Direction: Sell on Rallies (Daily-Level Trend-Following Trade)
Trading Signal: Sell
Confidence Index: 65.00 / 100.00
Entry Range: 4020.00 - 4070.00
Range Midpoint: 4045.00
Stop Loss Protection: 4105.00
Take Profit Target: 3925.00
Risk-Reward Ratio: 1 : 2.00
【Execution Details】
Position Management and Rhythm: Gold is currently locked in repeated whipsaws near $4,074.00, with all three cyclical indicators pointing to neutral, leaving the market devoid of short-term single-way catalysts. Against the backdrop of frequent geopolitical surprises in the strait, traders must avoid chasing orders in the middle of the range, which can easily lead to stop-loss hits from disorderly intraday shadow lines. The ideal trading rhythm is to stay patient for a technical throwback to the range midpoint near $4,045.00 or higher, and progressively establish light short positions once the price confirms its inability to break above the $4,080.00 to $4,100.00 resistance zone.
Risk Warning
Trading in financial markets involves unpredictable risks, including but not limited to the loss of principal. This analysis is for reference only and does not constitute direct investment advice. Investors should make independent judgments and autonomous decisions based on their own risk tolerance.