Market News Analysis
US June CPI Cools Comprehensively Beyond Market Expectations: The US June CPI reported on the evening of July 14 rose 3.5% year-on-year and fell 0.4% month-on-month, while the core CPI rose 2.6% year-on-year and remained unchanged month-on-month, printing comprehensively below market expectations. Notably, the month-on-month CPI marked its first negative growth since 2020. Following the data release, the market swiftly adjusted the Federal Reserve's policy path, with the implied probability of keeping rates unchanged in July climbing past 83%, while the probability of a September rate hike retreated significantly. The US dollar index dropped 0.52% in a single day, logging its sharpest daily decline in nearly two weeks.
Fed Chairman Warsh's Congressional Debut Delivers a Cautiously Hawkish Stance: On July 15, in his debut congressional hearing since taking office, Warsh noted that he welcomed the cooling signals from June inflation but emphasized that a single month's data is insufficient to prove a structural downward trend in inflation. He reiterated that the Federal Reserve remains committed to achieving its 2% long-term health milestone and that subsequent policy decisions will continue to depend heavily on incoming economic data. This cautious posture prevented the market from completely pricing out rate hike expectations within the year, causing gold and silver to progressively pull back from their intraday highs, narrowing their gains and entering a volatile consolidation regime.
Sustained Escalation of the US-Iran Conflict Drives Up Crude Oil Prices: On July 15, the US military launched a new round of strikes against Iranian coastal military targets, keeping shipping risks in the Strait of Hormuz on a steady rise. Brent crude oil prices rose to near $85 per barrel, refreshing a one-month high. The rebound in energy prices reignited market anxieties over a subsequent resurgence in inflation, partially offsetting the policy easing expectations brought by the CPI data. Meanwhile, although safe-haven demand was unleashed, it failed to become the dominant market catalyst. Locked in a multi-directional tug-of-war, gold and silver found it difficult to embark on a structural, single-way upward rally.
Gold Technical Analysis
Daily Level: Opening at $4,052.94/ounce during today's Asian session, gold prices registered a narrow callback following yesterday's sharp rally triggered by the surprise drop in CPI data, offering poor trending opportunities. Currently, the moving averages remain in a dead cross state. Short positions built near the $4,105.00 line can be held continuously, with stop losses moved to $4,105.00 to set up a break-even protection order, targeting the previous low on the left or exiting at a 2:1 risk-reward ratio.
Intraday Short-Term (15 Minutes): Moving averages currently present a bearish alignment with the price hovering between the 20 and 80 MAs. Wait for the price to break below the 20 MA line to consider short entries; maintain a wait-and-see stance for now.
Silver Technical Analysis
Daily Level: Opening at $58.640/ounce today, silver fluctuated within a narrow range during the session, presenting poor trading opportunities. The daily timeframe remains in a moving average dead cross state, keeping the broader direction bearish; wait patiently for an opportunity to retest the 20 MA.
Intraday Short-Term (15 Minutes): Moving averages currently present a bearish alignment. Upon breaking below the 20 MA line at $58.269, traders can enter short positions, using the upper relative high near $58.555 as a stop-loss reference, exiting at a 2:1 risk-reward ratio.
Risk Warning
The trading market involves unpredictable risks, including but not limited to the loss of principal. This analysis is for reference only and does not constitute direct investment advice. Investors should make independent judgments and autonomous decisions based on their own risk tolerance.