Market News Analysis
Rising Expectations for US-Iran Diplomatic Talks Combined with Bargain-Hunting Buyers Drive Strong Precious Metal Recovery to Two-Week Highs: Market reports on July 22 indicate that Iran's Interior Minister traveled to Pakistan to seek mediation, with mediating parties actively pushing for a restart of talks between the US and Iran. As neither side has closed the door on dialogue, markets have begun pricing in crude oil pullbacks and easing inflationary pressures post-ceasefire.
Middle East Conflict Escalation Runs Parallel with Diplomatic Endeavors: On July 22, the US military completed an 11th consecutive night of airstrikes against Iranian targets, hitting aircraft hangars and drone facilities. Donald Trump warned of intensifying strikes, while Houthi threats to Red Sea shipping forced Saudi crude tankers to reroute, holding Brent crude near the $91 per barrel high. Although elevated energy prices maintain inflation stickiness concerns, market sentiment has gradually shifted toward trading logic driven by conflict de-escalation, falling oil prices, and reduced interest rate pressures. The interplay between geopolitical safe-haven bids and rate expectations has resulted in a broad ascending consolidation pattern for gold and silver rather than a violent unilateral surge.
Expectations for a Fed July Rate Hike Cool Significantly: Chicago Fed President Goolsbee publicly stated on July 22 that government shutdown disruptions have reduced economic data integrity, warranting greater prudence in monetary policy adjustments without rushing. A Reuters poll shows most economists expect the Federal Reserve to hold benchmark rates unchanged through the remainder of 2026, while CME FedWatch tools reflect an 84.5% probability of rates remaining unchanged in July. Marginal easing in policy tightening expectations has dragged down US Treasury yields and the US Dollar Index, lowering the carrying cost of non-yielding precious metals and providing macro support for the gold and silver rally.
Gold Technical Analysis
Daily Level: Spot gold opened at $4,083.18 per ounce in today's Asian session, rebounding upward intraday to touch a peak of $4,141.63. Moving averages remain in a bearish dead-cross alignment, with the closing price returning between the 20 and 80 moving averages; await a renewed breakdown below the 20 moving average to position for shorting opportunities.
Intraday Short-Term (15 Minutes): Moving averages currently present a bullish alignment, with price hovering above the 20-period moving average. An upside breakout in the early session offered long entry setups; if candlesticks close above the 20 moving average, long positions may be re-entered, setting stop-losses at the low of the preceding bearish candle while trailing profits.
Silver Technical Analysis
Daily Level: Silver opened at $58.764 per ounce today, staging a modest intraday bounce to touch a high of $59.980. Price action has reclaimed a position above the 20 moving average; patiently await medium-term short entry triggers to position for broader setups.
Intraday Short-Term (15 Minutes): Moving averages currently present a bullish alignment. Early session upside breakouts offered long entry triggers; existing long positions can consider exiting at a 2:1 reward-to-risk ratio or upon a breakdown below the 20 moving average. Price currently trades below the 20 moving average, awaiting upside breakout signals for long entries.
Risk Warning
Financial market trading involves unpredictable risks, including but not limited to the loss of principal. This analysis is for reference only and does not constitute direct investment advice. Investors should make independent judgments and autonomous decisions based on their own risk tolerance.