I. Fundamental Analysis
US Military Executes 11th Consecutive Night of Airstrikes, War Costs Soar: The US military announced a 11th consecutive night of large-scale strikes against targets inside Iran, including the northwestern stronghold of Tabriz, areas surrounding the Bushehr nuclear facility, and southern ports. In response, Iran launched drones and missiles targeting US military bases in Kuwait, Bahrain, and Jordan. Since the outbreak of hostilities, the conflict has cost the US military $37.5 billion—a sharp increase of nearly $8 billion from prior disclosures—prompting the Pentagon to urgently request an additional $70 billion emergency defense budget from Congress.
Houthi Blockade Expands, Forcing Asian Refineries to Reroute Via the Suez Canal: Following the Houthi movement's declaration of a maritime blockade against Saudi Arabia, tankers carrying Saudi crude to Asia reversed course in the Red Sea. To mitigate missile attack risks near the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait, several Asian refiners, such as South Korea's Hyundai Oilbank, began rerouting Saudi crude shipments through the Suez Canal and around Africa to reach Asia. Transit times are expected to expand by up to 4 weeks, causing freight and fuel costs to skyrocket and pushing Brent crude futures higher to $92.52 per barrel.
Trump Tariff Expiration Nears, Fresh Global Tariff Threats Loom: The temporary 10% global tariff previously signed by President Trump is set to expire this Friday. According to reports from the Financial Times, the White House is preparing to initiate a fresh wave of tariff investigations and retaliatory levies against dozens of nations this week. Following the imposition of a 50% punitive tariff on Canada, global trade friction is escalating further.
II. Cyclical Technical Analysis
Four-Hour Cycle (Medium-Term Trend: Bullish Recovery)
Trend Assessment: On the four-hour chart, price action executed consecutive bullish candle recoveries after bottoming out at $3,959, currently trading near the upper boundary of its consolidation channel. However, the $4,100.00 psychological threshold exerts strong technical resistance overhead, with multiple rebounds showing momentum exhaustion and failing to establish a single-way bullish breakout.
Indicator Monitoring: RSI records 70.53, entering overbought territory.
One-Hour Cycle (Intraday Short-Term: Neutral-to-Bullish Rebound)
Trend Assessment: The short-term one-hour chart presents a continuous ascending structure. However, as prices approach the $4,073.50–$4,087.00 resistance zone, the upward slope driven by buyers is beginning to flatten out.
Indicator Monitoring: RSI reached 77.95, pushing into overbought warning territory and signaling elevated risks for chasing long positions, as the rebound remains vulnerable to bearish resistance at any moment.
III. Trading Execution Plan
Based on expectations of resistance as the four-hour timeframe rebounds toward the upper channel boundary, combined with one-hour RSI entering overbought territory and ongoing macro valuation pressure from elevated interest rates, a sell-on-rallies strategy will be implemented intraday.
Strategy Direction: Sell on Rallies (Swing Trade)
Trading Signal: Sell
Confidence Index: 65 / 100
Entry Range: 4060.00 - 4087.00
Range Midpoint: 4073.50
Stop Loss Protection: 4103.73
Take Profit Target: 4013.05
Risk-Reward Ratio: 1 : 2.00
【Execution Details】
Given that short-term rebound momentum across the one-hour and four-hour cycles has not fully dissipated, avoid impulsively chasing short trades below $4,060.00. The ideal entry approach is to wait for price to test higher toward the range midpoint near $4,073.50, or to scale into short positions in tranches upon observing short-term top reversal signals—such as long upper wicks or bearish engulfing patterns—within the $4,080.00–$4,087.00 resistance belt.
Risk Warning
Financial market trading involves unpredictable risks, including but not limited to the loss of principal. This analysis is for reference only and does not constitute direct investment advice. Investors should make independent judgments and autonomous decisions based on their own risk tolerance.