Market News Analysis
Sustained Escalation of US-Iran Conflict Compounded by Houthi Blockade on Saudi Shipping: On July 21, the market continued to digest Middle East developments as the US military conducted a ninth consecutive night of airstrikes against Iranian military targets. Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps retaliated against US bases in the Gulf, while Yemen's Houthis announced a maritime blockade on Saudi Arabia. Energy supply risks expanded beyond the Strait of Hormuz, briefly driving Brent crude above $91 per barrel before Iran's Foreign Ministry confirmed a 10-day ceasefire proposal from mediators, sparking diplomatic resolution hopes that guided oil back down to near $89.
Fed Officials Heavily Reiterate Hawkish Signals: Fed Vice Chair Jefferson stated publicly on July 21 that reassessing the current monetary policy stance would be appropriate if US inflation fails to cool rapidly. Cleveland Fed President Hammack also reiterated that further rate hikes might be required to combat inflation. CME FedWatch data shows the probability of a December rate hike rising to 80%, with September hike odds holding above 55%. With 10-year Treasury yields remaining elevated and the US Dollar Index holding above 100, the carrying cost of holding non-yielding precious metals remains high, visibly constraining rebound potential.
Precious Metals Undergo Technical Bargain-Hunting Repair Post Oversold Pullbacks: Following consecutive prior pullbacks, low-level bargain-hunting buyers stepped in during the July 21 Asian session. Spot gold reclaimed the $4,020 level, while spot silver surged nearly 2% intraday, demonstrating stronger technical recovery momentum than gold. However, broader capital outflow pressures persist, with SPDR Gold Trust net holdings declining by over 6 tonnes since July and COMEX gold speculative positions dropping to new lows since 2009, as institutional capital continues rotating into high-yielding Treasuries, capping the sustainability of gold and silver rallies.
Gold Technical Analysis
Daily Level: Spot gold opened at $4,008.79 per ounce during today's Asian session, drifting higher intraday to touch a peak of $4,084.14. Moving averages remain in a bearish dead-cross alignment, but prolonged low-level consolidation indicates robust underlying support. Traders holding short positions entered near $4,105 may consider taking profit to exit and observe price action over the coming days.
Intraday Short-Term (15 Minutes): Moving averages currently present a bullish alignment, with the price floating above the 20-period moving average. Wait for a price retest of the 20 moving average followed by a renewed breakout to enter long positions, patiently awaiting setup opportunities.
Silver Technical Analysis
Daily Level: Silver opened at $58.910 per ounce today, executing a strong intraday rebound to touch a high of $59.172. Moving averages maintain a bearish dead cross, keeping the broader bias downward; patiently await a technical throwback to the 20 moving average followed by a breakdown to execute short trades for medium-term opportunities.
Intraday Short-Term (15 Minutes): Moving averages currently present a bullish alignment, with the price floating above the 20-period moving average. Wait for a price retest of the 20 moving average followed by a renewed breakout to enter long positions, patiently awaiting setup opportunities.
Risk Warning
Financial market trading involves unpredictable risks, including but not limited to the loss of principal. This analysis is for reference only and does not constitute direct investment advice. Investors should make independent judgments and autonomous decisions based on their own risk tolerance.