I. Fundamental Analysis
Houthis Enforce Maritime Blockade on Saudi Arabia: Yemen's Houthi movement officially announced a "maritime embargo" on Saudi Arabia on Monday in response to Saudi Arabia's blockade on Yemen. With shipping through the Strait of Hormuz effectively ground to a halt due to US-Iran military strikes, Saudi Arabia relies primarily on the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait at the entrance of the Red Sea to sustain its oil exports. Should the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait be completely severed, global oil supplies would suffer an additional 7% loss on top of the 10% reduction already caused by the Hormuz stoppage.
Diplomatic Window Reopens as 10-Day Ceasefire Proposal Reaches the Table: Amid extreme geopolitical tensions across the Middle East, a diplomatic breakthrough has emerged. Senior Iranian officials confirmed that Tehran has received a 10-day temporary ceasefire proposal put forward by mediating nations (including Pakistan, Qatar, and Oman) aimed at preserving the framework agreement signed on June 17. Although the US military and Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) continued to exchange missile strikes overnight, the resumption of diplomatic channels offers the market a glimmer of hope for de-escalation.
Trump Invokes 1930 Tariff Act for First Time, Imposing 50% Tariff on Canadian Goods: US President Trump invoked Section 338 of the Tariff Act of 1930 on Monday—marking the first use of this provision in nearly a century—to announce a 50% punitive tariff on Canadian goods, including wine, cement, hockey equipment, and dairy products, set to take effect on August 19. This action further intensifies global trade uncertainty.
Oil Prices Pull Back Slightly as Crude Surge Is Capped by Three Factors: Despite geopolitical conflicts persisting for five months, Brent crude futures pulled back to trade near $88.87 per barrel. Analysis reveals that crude oil failed to skyrocket to $150-$200 per barrel as earlier predicted, primarily due to three combined factors:
first, EV adoption in China and reduced demand pushed June crude oil imports to a near ten-year low;
second, US crude oil production hit a record high of 13.93 million barrels per day alongside coordinated releases of the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR);
and third, market participants developed "headline fatigue," diminishing bullish appetite to chase higher prices.
II. Cyclical Technical Analysis
One-Hour Cycle (Intraday Short-Term: Bearish Dominance)
Trend Assessment: The short-term one-hour timeframe exhibits a clear bearish structure. Gold's repeated attempts to test the $4,032.00-$4,040.00 resistance zone were repeatedly rejected, signaling heavy overhead selling pressure. Although low-level technical recovery momentum is gradually accumulating, the moving average system maintains a bearish dead-cross alignment, leaving bears in control of the short-term direction.
Indicator Monitoring: RSI reads 58.07, positioning inside a bullish-neutral zone with moderate short-term volatility.
Four-Hour Cycle (Medium-Term Trend: Neutral)
Trend Assessment: The medium-term chart maintains a neutral assessment. Prices are locked in low-level choppy consolidation. Although the MACD remains in positive territory, its momentum histogram shows a distinct deceleration, failing to generate a synchronized bullish breakout. Overall structure remains in a technical repair phase following prior deep markdowns.
Indicator Monitoring: RSI prints 51.60, hovering inside neutral territory.
III. Trading Execution Plan
Given the clear sell signal on the one-hour cycle and the macro valuation compression exerted on gold by sustained high interest rates, a sell-on-rallies strategy will be implemented for intraday trading.
Strategy Direction: Sell on Rallies (Trend-Following Trade)
Trading Signal: Sell
Confidence Index: 85.00 / 100.00
Entry Range: 4000.00 - 4020.00
Range Midpoint: 4010.00
Stop Loss Protection: 4051.60
Take Profit Target: 3926.80
Risk-Reward Ratio: 1 : 2.00
【Execution Details】
Position Management and Rhythm: A phased entry model is recommended intraday. When gold rallies toward the range midpoint near $4,010.00, light short positions can be established. Should price further retest the strong resistance zone of $4,030.00-$4,040.00 and confirm rejection (displaying long upper wicks or bearish engulfing patterns), position size can be scaled up accordingly. If gold breaks directly below the $3,960.00 key support on expanding volume, trail the stop-loss order to break-even and target the ultimate profit target of $3,926.80.
Risk Warning
Financial market trading involves unpredictable risks, including but not limited to the loss of principal. This analysis is for reference only and does not constitute direct investment advice. Investors should make independent judgments and autonomous decisions based on their own risk tolerance.