Market News Analysis
Sustained Escalation of the US-Iran Conflict: On July 20, the market continued to digest the impact of the deteriorating weekend situation in the Middle East. Iranian officials confirmed that commercial shipping volume through the Strait of Hormuz has effectively dropped to zero, while the US military completed its ninth consecutive night of airstrikes against Iranian military targets, pushing the bilateral confrontation to a higher gear. Driven by persistent fears of supply disruptions, Brent crude surged past $91 per barrel, marking a near one-and-a-half-month high.
Fed Officials Reiterate Hawkish Signals, September Rate Hike Expectations Remain Intact at High Levels: The CME FedWatch tool demonstrates that market participants price the implied probability of a 25-basis-point rate hike in September at approximately 61%. Tightening expectations for the year have not dissipated despite the cooling inflation noted in June. With the 10-year US Treasury yield holding firm above 4.5% and the US Dollar Index stabilizing above the 100 milestone, the carrying cost of non-yielding gold and silver remains elevated, substantially constraining upward technical recovery momentum.
Gold and Silver Witness a Technical Repair Phase Following Oversold Adjustments: Following a cumulative markdown of over 2% last week, gold and silver bottomed out and rebounded during Monday's Asian session. Spot gold rallied from its intraday low to reclaim the psychological $4,000 threshold, while spot silver surged rapidly after a lower opening, with its intraday gain briefly exceeding 1.6% to visibly outperform gold. This round of repair stems primarily from institutional bargain-hunting after the prior sharp sell-off, coupled with the tactical entry of geopolitical safe-haven capital. However, the aggregate rebound intensity remains contained, and the market has yet to form a consensus regarding a structural trend reversal.
Market Focus Concentrates on the Fed Policy Meeting at the End of the Month: Investors broadly adopted a wait-and-see stance on July 20, waiting primarily for the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision later this month. While the consensus expects the central bank to maintain current interest rates, the hawkish or bearish leanings of the policy statement and the chairman's press conference will guide the subsequent macro path. Concurrently, the long-term structural support logic of global central bank gold accumulation remains entirely intact. The People's Bank of China has increased its gold reserves for 20 consecutive months. This official institutional allocation demand delivers a structural bottom cushion for gold and silver prices, ensuring reliable buying support emerges at lower levels and limiting extreme downside risks.
Gold Technical Analysis
Daily Level: Spot gold opened at $4,013.12 per ounce during the Asian session today, consolidating within a low-level range intraday. The morning session offered two entry points for long positions upon breaking above the 20-period moving average. Currently, moving averages remain in a dead-cross alignment, keeping the daily direction biased to the downside. Short positions entered near the $4,105.00 mark can be continuously held, with stop-loss orders trailed to $4,105.00 to lock in a break-even setup, targetting the structural low on the left or liquidating based on a 1:2 risk-reward parameter.
Intraday Short-Term (15 Minutes): Moving averages currently present a bullish alignment, with the price floating between the 20 and 80 moving averages. Wait for the price to retrace and enter long positions upon another decisive breakout above the 20 moving average.
Silver Technical Analysis
Daily Level: Silver opened at $55.615 per ounce today, drifting marginally higher intraday. The morning breakout above the 20 moving average presented a solid entry point for long positions, allowing for profit-taking at a 1:2 risk-reward ratio. As the moving averages maintain a bearish dead cross, traders should patiently wait for a technical throwback to the 20 moving average followed by a structural breakdown to establish short positions, targetting medium-term opportunities.
Intraday Short-Term (15 Minutes): Moving averages currently present a bullish alignment, with the price floating between the 20 and 80 moving averages. If the closing price manages to break back above the 20 moving average, long positions can be entered; currently, remain patient and wait.
Risk Warning
Financial market trading involves unpredictable risks, including but not limited to the loss of principal. This analysis is for reference only and does not constitute direct investment advice. Investors should make independent judgments and autonomous decisions based on their own risk tolerance.