I. Fundamental Analysis
Severe US-Iran Conflict Proceeds into the Ninth Night: The Middle East geopolitical landscape has completely spun out of control. The US declared it has executed large-scale airstrikes against Iran for the eighth consecutive night (entering the ninth day of market trading), heavily damaging its coastal defense and air facilities. In retaliation, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps launched intense bombardment against US military bases inside Kuwait and Bahrain, and directly attacked core civilian infrastructure, including Kuwait's desalination plants.
Oil Breaches $90 as Inflation Anxieties Fully Revive: Triggered by the full-scale escalation of US-Iran airstrikes and the practical suspension of shipping transiting the strait, Brent crude futures skyrocketed by a staggering 3.3% during Monday's Asian early session, briefly hitting a multi-month high above $91 per barrel. This runaway surge in crude oil prices has completely erased the cooling inflation dividends brought by last week's soft US CPI and PPI data, fully reviving global market anxieties over a resurgence of aggressive inflation.
Federal Reserve Officials Turn Jointly Hawkish: On Friday, Cleveland Fed President Hammack adopted a hawkish posture, joining the camp pushing for rate hikes to penalize sticky inflation. Currently, the implied probability of a September Fed rate hike has surged to 60%, directly driving the 30-year US Treasury yield past the critical 5.0% psychological milestone.
II. Cyclical Technical Analysis
One-Hour Cycle (Intraday Short-Term: Neutral-to-Weak)
Trend Assessment: Price successfully probed a session low near $3,982.00, basically establishing a short-term weak downward channel. Currently, the price is undergoing low-level corrective counter-attacks inside the $3,970.00 to $4,000.00 range, with the aggregate trajectory remaining flat.
Indicator Monitoring: RSI reads 50.31, presenting a minor technical repair after a sharp markdown. As long as the price fails to break above the major multi-directional watershed, short-term control remains strictly dominated by the bears.
Four-Hour Cycle (Medium-Term Trend: Neutral-to-Weak)
Trend Assessment: The medium-term chart continues its volatile downward slide. The price is locked in a low-level tug-of-war after forfeiting structural support from the medium-term moving averages.
Indicator Monitoring: RSI is recorded at 42.92, tracking within the weak zone. However, the bearish volume momentum displays a severe lack of expansion, implying that subsequent technical counter-attacks face strict spatial and structural resistance, capping gold's upside potential.
III. Trading Execution Plan
Given the post-plunge weak corrective pattern displayed across both the 1-hour and 4-hour charts, combined with the absolute valuation compression exerted on non-yielding gold by the 30-year US Treasury yield breaching 5.00%, a sell-on-rallies strategy will be adopted for intraday trading.
Strategy Direction: Sell on Rallies (Trend-Following Trade)
Trading Signal: Sell
Confidence Index: 65.00 / 100.00
Entry Range: 3970.00 - 4000.00
Range Midpoint: 3985.00
Stop Loss Protection: 4055.40
Take Profit Target: 3844.20
Risk-Reward Ratio: 1 : 2.00
【Execution Details】
Position Management and Rhythm: Although gold is currently locked in a post-markdown corrective phase in the short term, heavy bearish selling pressure remains entrenched near the $4,000.00 to $4,010.00 zone. The ideal approach intraday is to progressively build light short positions near the range midpoint of $3,985.00. Should the price stage a technical throwback to retest above the $4,000.00 threshold during the European and US sessions, it can be approached as an excellent risk-reward node for adding to shorts or establishing secondary entries, provided your broader risk parameters are not breached.
Risk Warning
Financial market trading involves unpredictable risks, including but not limited to the loss of principal. This analysis is for reference only and does not constitute direct investment advice. Investors should make independent judgments and autonomous decisions based on their own risk tolerance.