Market News Analysis
US-Iran Ceasefire Drives Sharp Pullback in Energy Prices: On July 27, markets absorbed signals of easing Middle East tensions after the US military concluded 13 consecutive days of airstrikes and Iran simultaneously paused retaliatory strikes. With an Omani diplomatic delegation advancing temporary ceasefire negotiations, expectations for transit through the Strait of Hormuz gradually improved. Benchmark international energy prices dropped over 5% in a single day back toward key levels, substantially moderating fears that energy costs would stoke inflation and force the Fed to prolong high rates, while the US Dollar Index weakened.
Market Caution Prevails Ahead of the July Fed Meeting: The Federal Reserve is scheduled to convene a new FOMC monetary policy meeting on July 28–29. While markets broadly expect interest rates to remain unchanged at this meeting, CME FedWatch tools indicate that the implied probability of a 25-basis-point rate hike in September remains above 70%. The policy statement and Chairman Warsh's commentary inclination will determine the subsequent policy trajectory. Investors generally limited position sizing ahead of meeting signals, resulting in cautious buyer-seller tug-of-war; gold and silver pulled back after early Asian session spikes, failing to establish a trending breakout and maintaining a rangebound rebound pattern overall.
Global Gold ETFs End Persistent Outflows with Continuous Inflows: Latest data reveals that SPDR Gold Trust, the world's largest gold ETF, recorded net capital inflows for four consecutive trading sessions, accumulating 10.28 tons in net additions and reversing its previous prolonged contraction trend. Following deep prior pullbacks in gold and silver, technical oversold rebound demand was released. With silver possessing industrial attributes and a smaller market capitalization, its rebound elasticity significantly outperformed gold, demonstrating notably stronger price recovery. Global central bank gold buying remains elevated; the People's Bank of China has expanded gold reserves for 20 consecutive months, adding 480,000 ounces in June alone to hit a two-and-a-half-year monthly high, providing solid structural bottom support for precious metals.
Gold Technical Analysis
Daily Level: Spot gold opened at $4,083.30 per ounce during today's Asian session, opening significantly higher on news of the temporary US-Iran ceasefire before consolidating within a narrow intraday range. Moving averages remain in a bearish death cross alignment; short positions entered near $4,049.00 can be held, with stop-losses maintained near the prior swing high at $4,166.00.
Intraday Short-Term (15-Minute): Moving averages currently present a bullish alignment, with price hovering between the 20 and 80 moving averages. Patiently await an upside breakout above the 20-period moving average for intraday short-long opportunities.
Silver Technical Analysis
Daily Level: Silver opened at $59.317 per ounce today, opening higher on the US-Iran ceasefire news and consolidating near highs during the Asian session. Moving average death crosses retain a bearish inclination; short positions entered upon breaking below the 20 moving average two days ago can be held, with stop-loss maintained at $60.911.
Intraday Short-Term (15-Minute): Moving averages currently display a bullish alignment, with price situated between the 20 and 80 moving averages. Await a breakout above the 20-period moving average to enter long positions, exiting at a 2:1 risk-reward target.
Risk Warning
Financial market trading involves unpredictable risks, including but not limited to the loss of principal. This analysis is for reference only and does not constitute direct investment advice. Investors should make independent judgments and autonomous decisions based on their own risk tolerance.