Fundamental Analysis
Tactical Pause in US-Iran Conflict: Following 13 consecutive nights of intensive bombardment against Iranian targets, the US Department of Defense suspended airstrikes late Friday evening. Senior US military officials conveyed grave concerns to President Donald Trump regarding the rapid depletion of precision ammunition stockpiles, asserting that primary military objectives had been largely accomplished. Subsequently, senior Iranian officials confirmed Tehran's stance of tit-for-tat reciprocity, indicating that as long as US strikes remain suspended, Iran will likewise halt retaliatory attacks against regional US bases.
Inflation Fears Moderating: The tactical de-escalation in the Middle East triggered a sharp correction across energy markets, with energy prices plunging 5.05% to $91.89 per barrel. Although daily transit volumes through the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait remain severely constrained (fewer than 10 vessels), extreme market panic eased significantly. Accompanied by pullback in energy valuations and a pullback in the US Dollar Index to 101.23, spot gold opened sharply higher on Monday with an upward price gap, rebounding to $4,106.18 per ounce.
Cyclical Technical Analysis
One-Hour Cycle (Intraday Short-Term: Rangebound Rebound)
Trend Assessment: On the 1-hour chart, price action broke out of last week's low-level consolidation with a high-volume short-term rally, surging upward toward $4,108.58 to test heavy overhead resistance. However, the rapid short-term advance pushed technical indicators into overbought territory, constraining momentum for further upside chasing.
Indicator Monitoring: RSI operates in bullish territory near overbought thresholds, though overall momentum remains bounded by the broader medium-term consolidation range.
Four-Hour Cycle (Medium-Term Trend: Neutral-to-Bearish)
Trend Assessment: On the 4-hour chart, prices continue grinding within a broad consolidation range between $4,000.00 and $4,166.00. Last week's rally toward $4,166.00 printed a prominent upper shadow before retreating rapidly, signaling heavy overhead supply. While price action has bounced above the middle Bollinger Band, it has yet to break the pattern of lower highs.
Indicator Monitoring: RSI registers 57.95, residing in neutral equilibrium territory.
Trading Execution Plan
Given the broader neutral-to-bearish structure across daily and 4-hour timeframes, coupled with interest rate pressure ahead of the Fed rate decision and gold rebounding into technical resistance, a sell-on-rallies approach will be employed intraday.
Strategy Direction: Sell on Rallies (Swing Trend-Following)
Trading Signal: Sell
Confidence Index: 65 / 100
Current Price: 4108.58
Entry Range: 4022.00 - 4090.00 (Positioning can be initiated if price encounters resistance within the 4080.00 - 4110.00 zone)
Range Midpoint: 4056.00
Stop Loss Protection: 4065.75 (For wider buffer, reference above 4115.00)
Take Profit Target: 4036.50 (First target; if breached, look toward the 4000.00 mark)
Risk-Reward Ratio: 1 : 2.00
【Execution Details】
Entry Pacing & Control: Given that early morning price action spiked near $4,108.58, gold is currently probing a key resistance testing zone where chasing long positions should be strictly avoided. The ideal operational approach is to monitor 1-hour and 15-minute charts; when price action exhibits reversal signals—such as long upper wicks or bearish engulfing candles—within the $4,080.00–$4,110.00 resistance belt, short positions should be built in tranches.
Hard Risk Control Line: Should gold break through cleanly and close firmly above $4,115.00 per ounce, short-term upside momentum will have exceeded expectations, at which point short positions must strictly execute stop-loss exits to revert to observation.
Risk Warning
Financial market trading involves unpredictable risks, including but not limited to the loss of principal. This analysis is for reference only and does not constitute direct investment advice. Investors should make independent judgments and autonomous decisions based on their own risk tolerance.