Fundamental Analysis
Fed Keeps Rates Unchanged as Hawkish Dissents Reach 50-Year High: The Federal Reserve released its latest monetary policy resolution, maintaining the target benchmark federal funds rate between 3.50% and 3.75%. However, the decision triggered the fiercest internal dissent since 1970, with three policymakers casting dissenting votes in favor of an immediate 25-basis-point rate hike. Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh issued strong commentary during the press conference, emphasizing that the central bank has "no soft targets, only a hard 2% inflation target," signaling an inclination toward further tightening. Interest rate futures now price the probability of a September rate hike at 60% to 64%.
US Launches New Wave of Airstrikes: US Central Command confirmed that US military forces executed a powerful new wave of airstrikes against targets inside Iran at 8:00 PM Eastern Time on Wednesday, calling the strikes a decisive response to prior Iranian attempts to attack US forces in the Middle East.
Energy Valuations Surge 7% in Single Session: US official data revealed commercial crude energy stockpiles plummeted by 7.2 million barrels last week to 404.5 million barrels, hitting their lowest level since 2018 and far exceeding expectations of a 1.3-million-barrel draw. Catalyzed by the supply shock, Brent energy jumped 7.91% to $90.74 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate surged 6.56% to $84.46 per barrel, reigniting fears of persistent inflation.
Cyclical Technical Analysis
One-Hour Cycle (Intraday Short-Term: Low-Level Rebound)
Trend Assessment: On the 1-hour chart, price action presents a clear bottoming rebound on expanding volume, with prices pushing cleanly above three major moving averages into a bullish alignment. Technical indicators signal a strong buy, with RSI, MACD, CCI, ROC, and Bull/Bear Power flipping positive. However, ATR signals elevated volatility, making market-chasing orders susceptible to whipsaws.
Four-Hour Cycle (Medium-Term Trend: Bullish Recovery)
Trend Assessment: On the 4-hour chart, prices staged a strong rebound after completing a secondary bottom near $3,996.00, reclaiming the 30-period moving average resistance line near $4,053.13 and signaling short-term technical recovery. However, price action previously printed a prominent upper wick near $4,111.00, indicating heavy overhead supply and an absence of unhindered upward acceleration.
Trading Execution Plan
Given that both 1-hour and 4-hour timeframes exhibit expanding volume and recovery momentum off lows, yet prices approach a dense overhead resistance zone between $4,091.00 and $4,111.00, chasing rallies at current levels is discouraged. A buy-on-pullback strategy is recommended intraday.
Strategy Direction: Buy on Pullback (Dip Buying)
Trading Signal: Buy (Upon Pullback Confirmation)
Confidence Index: 70 / 100
Current Price: Near $4,081.80
Entry Observation Range: $4,078.00 - $4,080.00 or $4,062.00 - $4,065.00
Entry Confirmation Signal: 15-minute or 1-hour chart stabilization on support with long lower wicks, bullish engulfing candles, or renewed volume buying.
Stop Loss References: $4,078 entry plan stop loss set below $4,060.00; $4,062 entry plan stop loss set below $4,045.00.
Take Profit Targets:
Target 1 at $4,100.00;
Target 2 at $4,111.00 - $4,123.00;
Target 3 at $4,149.00 - $4,150.00.
Risk Management and Precautions
Beware of Chasing Highs: With the current price near $4,081.80 sitting extremely close to the initial resistance belt between $4,091.00 and $4,100.00, direct long chasing offers poor risk-reward. Traders must await a pullback to $4,078.00 or $4,065.00 to confirm support before establishing positions.
Guard Against Hawkish Fed Aftershocks: Although the Fed kept rates unchanged, three internal dissents favoring a rate hike and Chairman Warsh's firm commitment to 2% inflation signal persistent hawkish pressure. Should markets fully digest this stance, elevated Treasury yields could re-emerge to weigh on gold.
Risk Warning
Financial market trading involves unpredictable risks, including but not limited to the loss of principal. This analysis is for reference only and does not constitute direct investment advice. Investors should make independent judgments and autonomous decisions based on their own risk tolerance.