I. Federal Reserve Holds Rates Steady in July as Internal Division Widens Significantly
In the early morning of July 30, the Federal Reserve announced that it would maintain the federal funds rate target range at 3.50%–3.75% for the fifth consecutive time. The vote concluded at 9–3, with three hawkish committee members dissenting in favor of a 25-basis-point rate hike. This marks the first time in nearly a decade that three dissenters cast opposing votes in a single FOMC meeting. During the press conference, Chair Warsh reiterated his commitment to the 2% inflation target, rejecting higher inflation tolerance and leaving future rate hikes on the table without providing explicit guidance for September.
II. Resurgence of US-Iran Conflict Drives Surge in Energy Prices
On July 30, markets digested the impact of escalating geopolitical tensions after Iran fired ballistic missiles targeting US bases in Jordan, prompting joint US-Saudi strikes against pro-Iranian militias in Iraq. President Trump publicly declared that new retaliatory strikes against Iran would be executed, causing maritime transit risks in the Strait of Hormuz to spike once again. Driven by supply disruption concerns, benchmark international energy prices surged nearly 8% in a single session. This sharp energy rebound revived expectations of sticky inflation, reinforcing the Fed's higher-for-longer policy rationale. These inflationary concerns collided with safe-haven demand, causing gold and silver prices to fluctuate wildly without a clear trend direction.
III. US June Core PCE Inflation Data Set for Heavyweight Release Tonight
On the evening of July 30, the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge, the June Core PCE Price Index, will be officially released. This data will directly test disinflation trends and influence the monetary policy path for September. Markets currently project a modest slowdown in the year-over-year core PCE print; a hotter-than-expected reading would elevate rate hike probabilities, whereas a softer print would create upside scope for precious metals. Ahead of the event, market participants remain cautious, while post-rally profit-taking pushed spot gold lower during Asian trading, with silver experiencing steeper pullbacks due to its industrial sensitivity.
IV. Global Central Bank Gold Purchases Surge 62% Year-Over-Year in Q2
The World Gold Council's latest Q2 Gold Demand Trends report shows that central banks and official institutions added a net 289 tonnes of gold to reserves, representing a 62% year-over-year surge. Total global gold demand reached 2,522 tonnes in the first half of the year, up 2% year-over-year. Although short-term price swings remain elevated due to interest rate expectations and geopolitical developments, structural central bank accumulation remains firm under ongoing de-dollarization dynamics, providing a fundamental floor for gold and silver prices and limiting downside risk.
Gold Technical Analysis
Daily Chart: Spot gold opened at $4,067.50 per ounce during Asian trading. Following an initial rally driven by the Fed rate decision, prices pulled back sharply toward a low of $4,028.51 as hawkish FOMC dissents and rising US Treasury yields weighed on the market. Moving averages remain in a bearish death cross. Short positions initiated near $4,049.00 can be held, with stop losses maintained above the previous high at $4,166.00.
Intraday Short-Term (15-Minute): Moving averages display a bearish alignment with price trading below the 20-period moving average. Traders should wait for a breakout signal following a pullback toward moving averages before entering short positions; currently maintaining a wait-and-see stance.
Silver Technical Analysis
Daily Chart: Spot silver opened at $57.368 per ounce, pulling back in tandem with gold. The moving average death cross maintains a bearish bias. Short positions entered following the breakdown below the 20-period moving average two days ago can be held, with stop losses kept at $60.911.
Intraday Short-Term (15-Minute): Moving averages exhibit a bearish alignment. Short positions can be initiated upon a breakdown below the 20-period moving average at $57.313, with stop loss referenced at the recent high of $57.600 and profit target set at a 2:1 risk-reward ratio.
Risk Warning
Trading markets involve unpredictable risks, including but not limited to the loss of principal. This analysis is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute direct investment advice. Investors should make independent judgments and autonomous decisions based on their individual risk tolerance.