I. Market News Analysis
Divergent expectations over US-Iran negotiations trigger violent energy price swings: Donald Trump publicly stated that US-Iran talks have initiated and the Strait of Hormuz is expected to reopen on August 4, driving global energy benchmark prices down over 5% the previous day and relieving energy inflation pressures as a marginal positive for precious metals. However, Iranian officials denied direct talks with the US, emphasizing that communication regarding the Strait of Hormuz is handled solely through Omani mediation. As risks of geopolitical twists remain, energy prices staged a minor intraday rebound.
Federal Reserve September rate hike expectations remain elevated: As of August 4, interest rate futures price in roughly a 65% probability of a 25 basis point Fed rate hike in September. New York Fed President Williams reiterated that further rate hikes cannot be ruled out if inflation pressures persist, while hawkish friction from three dissenters at the July FOMC meeting lingers. With JOLTS job openings, ADP employment, and non-farm payroll reports scheduled for release this week, data outcomes will directly guide policy trajectories. Investors generally maintain controlled exposure awaiting clearer signals, keeping gold and silver trading cautious and rangebound.
Retreating energy prices pull US Treasury yields lower, providing valuation support via reduced holding costs for non-yielding metals: Driven by expectations of easing Middle East tensions, global benchmark energy prices dropped over 5% in a single day toward key support, significantly soothing fears of an inflation resurgence. Consequently, the 10-year US Treasury yield fell 5 basis points to 4.68%, lowering the real yield opportunity cost of holding non-yielding gold. This offers bottom-level valuation support for precious metals, offsetting pressure from rate hike expectations.
II. Gold Technical Analysis
Daily Chart: Spot gold opened at 4,048.26 USD per ounce during the Asian session today, trading sideways throughout the day with opportunities restricted to short-term long positions. Moving averages remain in a death cross configuration. Short positions entered near 4,049.00 USD may continue to be held with stop losses maintained near the previous high of 4,166.00 USD.
Intraday Short-Term (15-Minute Chart): Moving averages display a bullish alignment. Short-term intraday long positions may take profits on one position. Price currently shows signs of retracing toward the 80 MA; traders should await price and moving average convergence before seeking new setups.
III. Silver Technical Analysis
Daily Chart: Spot silver opened at 58.159 USD per ounce today, trending upward in rangebound trading while remaining at relatively depressed levels. Moving averages are in a death cross configuration, favoring bears. Short positions entered when price broke below the 20 MA two days ago can continue to be held, with stop losses held at the 60.911 USD level.
Intraday Short-Term (15-Minute Chart): Moving averages currently show a bullish alignment. The Asian session offered entry opportunities for long positions breaking above the 20 MA, achieving a 2-to-1 reward-to-risk take-profit exit. Price has now pulled back below the 20 MA; if price breaks back above the 20 MA, long positions may be re-attempted. Currently, a wait-and-see stance is recommended.
Risk Warning
Trading markets involve unpredictable risks, including but not limited to the loss of principal capital. This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute direct investment advice. Investors should make independent judgments and autonomous decisions based on their risk tolerance.