I. Market Fundamentals
1. Geopolitical Stalemate Drives Energy Prices Higher, Reigniting Inflation Concerns
President Trump confirmed no intent to extend the US-Iran MOU, emphasizing no set timeline for resolution while threatening action against Oman if navigation in the Strait of Hormuz is hindered. Iran shifted from a defensive to an offensive posture, further deteriorating transit prospects.
2. Markets Await FOMC Minutes as Rising Treasury Yields Lift Holding Costs
Investors remain cautious ahead of the Fed's July meeting minutes. While September rate hike probabilities have moderated to around 33%, the 10-year US Treasury yield rebounded to 4.724% and the 30-year yield rose to 5.321%, putting upward pressure on gold holding costs.
3. Global Central Banks Reduce US Treasury Holdings, Strengthening Gold Support
US Treasury data revealed foreign holdings dropped by 72.1 billion USD in June to 9.3 trillion USD, with major cuts by China, Japan, and the UK. De-dollarization trends and official gold reserve expansion continue to provide solid floor support for precious metals.
II. Gold Technical Analysis
Daily Horizon:
Opened at 4421.48 USD per ounce in Asian trading, rallied to a high of 4436.24 USD, then retreated into rangebound consolidation. Moving averages remain in a death cross with price sitting above the 80 MA.
15-Minute Horizon:
Moving averages show bearish alignment with price floating between the 20 and 80 MAs. Await a clear breakdown below the 20 MA before evaluating short entries.
III. Silver Technical Analysis
Daily Horizon:
Opened at 65.752 USD per ounce in narrow-range consolidation. Moving averages point bearish with price sandwiched between key MAs.
15-Minute Horizon:
Bearish moving average alignment with price between the 20 and 80 MAs. Exercise patience and await moving average breakdowns before entering short positions.
Risk Disclaimer
Trading involves significant risk including loss of principal. This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Investors should independently evaluate risks and make autonomous decisions.