Warsh's Hawkish Speech Slams Gold and Silver

1. Fundamental Analysis: Hawkish Remarks Fuel Rate Hike Expectations; Geopolitics & Payroll Revisions Limit Downside

• Warsh Delivers Hawkish Tone: In his inaugural keynote address at the Jackson Hole Symposium, Fed Chair Warsh mentioned inflation 25 times, reiterating that the 2% inflation target remains non-negotiable. He explicitly stated that if underlying inflation does not decelerate quickly enough, the Fed still has substantial work to do. Following this hawkish signal, market expectations shifted rapidly: the probability of a September rate hike jumped from 35% to roughly 60%, while the 2-year Treasury yield surged by 12 basis points—its largest single-day rise since June—raising the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding precious metals.

• US-Iran Military Friction Escalates: Geopolitical tensions flared over the weekend as U.S. forces struck IRGC missile facilities on Larak Island, prompting Iran to retaliate by firing ballistic missiles at a U.S. base in Jordan, marking the first direct military clash between the two sides since late July.

• NFP Downward Revision and Central Bank Buying: U.S. non-farm payrolls were revised down by 79,000 in preliminary data, exceeding expectations and indicating marginal cooling in labor market resilience, which caps further aggressive rate hike expectations. Furthermore, CFTC data showed COMEX gold net long positions reached an 11-month high in the week ended August 25. Strong structural buying from global central banks continues to provide fundamental support, limiting deeper declines in gold and silver.

2. Gold Technical Analysis: Daily Chart Consolidates While Intraday Focuses on 20-MA Breakdown



• Daily Timeframe (Medium-Term Trend): Spot gold opened at $4,433.28/oz in Asia, extending its downward correction to an intraday low of $4,396.60 before bouncing back above the $4,400 psychological mark into a broad consolidation range. Daily moving averages remain in a bullish alignment, keeping the broader macro structure constructive. As prices test support above the 20-day MA, confirmation is required before establishing new medium-term positions;

• 15-Minute Timeframe (Intraday Short-Term): Moving averages show a bearish alignment. If price action rebounds and breaks below the 20-period moving average once again, traders may consider short entries with stops placed above the recent swing high, targeting a 1:2 risk-to-reward ratio.

3. Silver Technical Analysis: Daily Rebounds Slowly; Wait for Intraday Confirmation



• Daily Timeframe (Medium-Term Trend): Silver opened at $65.483/oz, trading higher within a consolidation structure. Although moving averages are in a bearish cross, the 20-day MA is converging toward the 80-day MA with price testing dynamic support. Traders should wait for technical alignment across moving averages before building swing positions;

• 15-Minute Timeframe (Intraday Short-Term): Short-term moving averages reflect a bullish alignment, with prices fluctuating between key averages. Patience is advised until a confirmed breakdown below the 20-period moving average triggers a short setup.

4. Risk Disclaimer

Financial trading involves unpredictable risks, including the potential loss of principal. This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute direct investment advice. Investors should make independent judgments based on their own risk tolerance.