Dovish Remarks Boost Gold and Silver Back to the 4,500 Mark

1. Market Fundamentals Analysis

1. Fed Governor Waller sent dovish policy signals, stating that if inflation data continues to improve toward the 2% target, he would support holding interest rates steady at the September FOMC meeting. Consequently, market expectations for a rate hike dropped significantly. Influenced by this, the U.S. Dollar Index fell below the 99 mark, and the 10-year Treasury yield declined in tandem. The opportunity cost of holding non-yielding precious metals dropped noticeably, driving spot gold up nearly 2% overnight to reclaim the $4,500/oz level, hitting a one-week high. Spot silver surged over 2.5%, as its industrial properties and capital inflows gave it stronger rebound elasticity than gold.

2. Markets are awaiting the U.S. August Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report tonight, which serves as a core basis for the Fed's September policy decisions. During this policy window, investors are broadly managing positions and taking a wait-and-see approach, keeping gold and silver in a high-level consolidation pattern. Current market consensus expects an addition of roughly 55,000 jobs in August. If the data comes in weak, it will further validate the cooling labor market narrative, suppressing rate hike expectations and extending the precious metals rally. If the data exceeds expectations, it could reignite rate hike pricing and pressure metals. Long-short battles have turned cautious, narrowing intraday volatility.

3. The U.S. August ISM Services PMI rose to 55.4, beating market expectations and hitting a six-month high. The resilience of service sector expansion highlighted concerns over sticky inflation, somewhat offsetting the bullish impact of the dovish remarks and capping the upside for gold and silver. The data showed that the employment and price sub-indices remain high, sparking fears that the pace of disinflation is slowing and that the Fed may keep rates higher for longer than anticipated. Consequently, gold and silver trimmed their gains after spiking, failing to break through key resistance levels.

4. Trump stated that military strikes against Iran would not last long, cooling expectations of an escalating geopolitical conflict in the Middle East. This limited the upside for international oil prices. Meanwhile, long-term central bank gold buying provided foundational support. The marginal easing of energy supply risks reduced fears of an inflation rebound, while the long-term trend of global central banks increasing their gold reserves remains intact. Sustained official strategic allocation demand provides medium-to-long-term support for precious metals, effectively limiting the depth of pullbacks.

2. Gold Technical Analysis



During today's Asian session, the market traded in a narrow range. With the heavyweight NFP data due tonight, there are no clear unilateral trend opportunities intraday.

On the daily timeframe, the moving averages remain in a golden cross, maintaining a bullish macro bias. After yesterday's close broke above the 20-day MA, traders can consider building medium-term long positions on pullbacks. Stop losses can be referenced below the 4,282 low, with take-profit targets aiming for previous highs. If the trend develops well, exiting with a 1:2 risk-to-reward ratio can be considered.

Intraday, the 15-minute short-term moving averages are in a bullish alignment, and the current price is hovering near them. It is recommended to wait for the market to choose a clear direction before seeking entry opportunities. Conservative investors should wait until after the evening data release when the trend becomes clearer before executing trades.

3. Silver Technical Analysis



Spot silver traded in a narrow range intraday, following gold's trajectory and temporarily lacking independent trend opportunities.

On the daily chart, the moving averages have formed a golden cross, pivoting the direction to bullish. Yesterday's close above the 20-day MA allows for the initiation of medium-term long positions. Stop losses can be referenced below the 66.300 low, with a primary target near the previous high of 71.000. Trailing stops along the moving averages or exiting at a 1:2 risk-to-reward ratio are also viable strategies.

The 15-minute moving averages currently present a bullish formation, with the price wedged between short and long-term MAs, waiting for a breakout above the 20-period MA. Given the choppy intraday conditions, short-term trades are best managed with a quick in-and-out approach targeting a 1:1 risk-to-reward ratio.

Risk Disclaimer

The views expressed above are for reference only and do not constitute specific investment advice. Financial markets involve unpredictable risks, including but not limited to the loss of principal. Investors should make independent judgments and decisions.