I. Stalled Negotiations Cause Strait Maritime Traffic Collapse
According to Kpler shipping tracking data on Monday, commodity vessel transits through the Strait of Hormuz dropped to just 5 vessels over the weekend following last week's attacks, with Sunday recording zero traffic—far below pre-conflict levels exceeding 130 daily. Bab el-Mandeb weekend transits fell to 49 vessels, with zero Saudi energy shipments tracked.
Diplomatically, US-Iran conflict resolution talks stalled. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi reaffirmed that Washington must fulfill all prerequisites regarding the strait before commercial navigation can resume; the US responded with threats of unprecedented sanctions.
II. Technical V-Shaped Rebound as Moving Averages Form Golden Cross
Spot gold traded at $4,396.08/oz (+0.46% / +$19.94) as of 13:48 Beijing Time.
After testing a daily low of $4,367.20 during early morning trading, oversold selling pressure exhausted. Bargain buying and short covering pushed prices up sharply in a steep V-shaped rally to a high of $4,416.46.
Gold has consolidated near $4,396. On 30-minute charts, MA20 ($4,395.90) and MA30 ($4,387.98) formed a golden cross at lower levels, providing immediate structural support.
III. Bullish Momentum Dominates Short-Term as Sensitive Oscillators Recede
30-minute technical evaluation indicates Strong Buy (8 Bullish, 1 Neutral, 2 Bearish):
Trend and Momentum Indicators:
RSI(14) reads 56.66, holding in healthy bullish territory;
MACD(12,26) reads 7.52, confirming continuous buy signals;
ADX(14) reads 24.63, indicating trend continuity from the session low.
Sensitive Indicators Receding:
STOCH(9,6) records 42.25;
StochRSI(14) records 43.72, both signaling minor profit-taking.
Divergence shows that while short-term recovery is established, profit-taking following the surge to $4,416.46 triggered temporary retracements in fast oscillators. Consolidation around $4,396 represents healthy technical digestion.
IV. Summary
Stalled US-Iran negotiations and the near-total shutdown of strait navigation continue to worsen energy supply constraints, anchoring hawkish monetary expectations and exerting structural pressure on gold. However, short-term technicals show a strong V-shaped rebound off $4,367.20 supported by bullish 30-minute moving averages. Key attention now turns to whether gold can hold firmly above $4,395.