Policy Divergence Between US Treasury and Fed: Gold Surges then Pulls Back Ahead of Symposium
I. News Events
On Thursday, policy disagreements between US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Fed Chair Kevin Warsh drew intense market focus.
Bessent advocates expanding long-term Treasury buybacks to cap borrowing costs, whereas Warsh favors reduced intervention, market-driven pricing, and an aggressive stance against inflation.
Meanwhile, July inflation data halted its decline, remaining well above the Fed's 2% target. Persistent inflation amplified internal Fed rate debates, with market-implied rate hike probabilities shifting to ~38.1% for September and ~73.6% for December.
In geopolitics, Qatar's Prime Minister is set to visit Tehran to restart stalled diplomatic efforts after Washington pledged stronger economic pressure on Iran. Amid conflicting policy signals, markets remain deeply cautious ahead of Warsh's Friday Jackson Hole speech.
II. 30-Minute Candlestick Chart
As of 13:55, spot gold traded at $4,607.28/oz, up 0.31% (+$14.27).
After touching a morning low of $4,595.58, gold climbed to a high of $4,643.06. However, lack of further fundamental catalysts triggered profit-taking, leading to a steep pullback that erased most intraday gains.
MA20 ($4,624.64) and MA30 ($4,615.59) have formed overhead dynamic resistance, breaking early bullish momentum and shifting the chart into a weak consolidation phase.
III. 30-Minute Technical Indicators
The 30-minute technical evaluation has turned overall weak following the afternoon drop, though sensitive indicators issue oversold warnings:
RSI(14) prints 44.57, residing below the 50 centerline in weak territory with limited buying follow-through;
ADX(14) records 28.45 with a sell signal, confirming downward momentum from the high;
StochRSI(14) prints an extreme 0.00 reading while Williams %R stands at -83.54, pushing both into deep oversold territory.
Indicator alignment shows short-term selling pressure dominates after rejection at $4,643.06. However, extreme oversold StochRSI readings suggest potential technical stabilization or mean-reversion toward overhead moving averages, raising risks for aggressive shorting at current lows.
IV. Summary
Overall, Treasury-Fed policy friction and elevated July inflation keep market participants cautious ahead of Jackson Hole. The 30-minute chart shows gold pulling back sharply from $4,643.06, capped by MA20/MA30 resistance. Attention now focuses on Kevin Warsh's speech tone and whether $4,600 holds as effective support.