I. Event Overview
France's President Macron announced on September 22 at the UN meeting that France recognizes Palestine. Luxembourg, Malta, Monaco, and Belgium made the same decision. This happened during the ongoing Gaza war, which has lasted nearly two years and caused over 65,000 deaths. It shows a big change in European countries' positions on the Israel-Palestine issue. Palestinian President Abbas promised to hold elections within a year after a ceasefire and said Hamas will not be in government. The US and Israel boycotted the meeting, and Israel threatened to annex the West Bank.
II. Reactions from All Parties
Supporters: EU Commission President von der Leyen announced a group to help with Gaza rebuilding. Indonesian President Prabowo promised to provide peacekeepers. Spain, Ireland, and others stressed that the two-state solution is the only way.
Opponents: Israel's UN ambassador called it an unrealistic show. US Secretary of State Rubio warned it will create more problems.
Palestine side: Abbas condemned Israel's crimes and for the first time clearly condemned Hamas's actions on October 7, 2023. He promised to remove weapons from armed groups.
III. Market Impact Analysis
Geopolitical risks: The recognition by European countries shakes the US-led Middle East policy. This big change in international order causes long-term uncertainty, which pushes gold prices up.
Changes in safe assets: Unlike usual crises, this event involves international law and diplomacy, so the dollar's safe-haven status weakens. Some funds may buy more gold to protect against risks from allies splitting, creating steady demand for gold.
IV. Technical Analysis
Gold price strongly broke its historical high due to the event. On September 23, Beijing time, it was 3742.40 USD per ounce. Key resistance is at 3780.00 USD, and support is at 3720.00 USD per ounce. Investors should watch for possible profit-taking.
V. Prospect Outlook
Israel's countermeasures: If Israel takes actions like annexing the West Bank, it could cause reactions from Arab countries, pushing gold price to test 3780.00 USD.
US policy changes: Trump will present a new peace plan to Arab leaders on September 23. If it moves away from the two-state solution, it might increase US-Europe differences, making gold a stronger safe haven.
UN diplomatic process: As more countries might recognize Palestine during the UN General Assembly, the divisions in the international community will grow, increasing systemic risks and providing long-term support for gold.
Summary
The recognition of Palestine by many European countries marks a new stage in Middle East geopolitics. The risks from changing international order support the demand for gold as a safe asset. Investors should focus on Israel's countermeasures, the US's new peace plan, and UN diplomatic developments. From a technical view, gold prices are in an upward trend, and the geopolitical premium may continue until the fourth quarter.