I. Event Overview
US President Trump will speak at the UN General Assembly on September 23, expected to continue his "America First" foreign policy and further distance from global cooperation. According to Reuters documents, the Trump administration plans to propose strict limits on political asylum, requiring asylum seekers to apply for protection in the first country they reach. This speech comes as the world faces multiple crises like Gaza and Ukraine, with over 150 world leaders attending. Trump will also hold bilateral meetings with Ukrainian President Zelenskiy and leaders from several Middle East countries.
II. Reactions
UN Secretary-General Guterres is trying to handle pressures from US aid cuts by reducing costs and improving efficiency. Many leaders are publicly supporting the establishment of a Palestinian state, which contrasts sharply with US and Israeli positions. Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu is scheduled to speak on Friday and is expected to strongly oppose efforts to recognize Palestine. Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov will also speak, highlighting the global divisions.
III. Market Impact Analysis
Fragmentation of global governance boosts demand for safe assets
The Trump administration's plan to overturn the post-World War II asylum system is another example of "America First" policy. This questioning of multilateralism increases uncertainty in global governance, pushing investors toward non-political safe assets like gold.
Risk of international cooperation failing
The US distancing itself from organizations like the UN could weaken the ability to coordinate global crisis solutions. If conflicts in Gaza and Ukraine escalate due to a lack of effective mediation, it will further strengthen gold's role as a safe haven.
IV. Technical Analysis
Gold price remains strong amid policy uncertainty. On September 23 at 14:12 Beijing time, it was 3755.03 USD per ounce. It is oscillating around the 3750.00 level. The relative strength index (RSI) is at 69.41, and the MACD (12,26) is at 13.37, indicating a strong buy trend.
V. Prospect Outlook
Impact of specific policies
If Trump officially proposes restrictions on asylum rights, it could lead to strong opposition from countries in Europe, increasing transatlantic divisions and raising geopolitical risk premiums.
Pressure for multilateral institution reforms
Continued US cuts to UN funding might force the organization to undergo structural reforms, and any dysfunction during this process could enlarge the gap in global crisis management.
Reactions from emerging markets
If more emerging market countries shift due to US policies and seek alternative security frameworks, it could speed up the restructuring of the international system, which would benefit gold in the long term.
Summary
Trump's UN speech highlights a trend of US withdrawal from global leadership, and the uncertainty in the global governance system provides new support for gold. Investors should pay close attention to international reactions to the asylum rights proposal, progress on UN reforms, and moves by emerging market countries.