I. Event Overview
US allies, including Britain, France, Canada, and Australia, have announced during the UN General Assembly that they recognize Palestine. This directly challenges Trump's policies, which strongly oppose it. At the same time, Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu is ignoring the US position. He has carried out airstrikes on Qatar, breaking ceasefire talks, and is preparing to annex the West Bank. The United Arab Emirates (UAE) has warned that it will leave the Abraham Accords if annexation happens.
II. Reactions
French President Macron publicly said, "If Trump really wants a Nobel Prize, he needs to stop the Gaza war." Arab leaders from Saudi Arabia and the UAE met with Trump but insisted on the two-state solution. Israel's far-right government firmly rejects a Palestinian state and is considering annexation as revenge. Analysts point out that the US is Israel's main supplier of weapons and diplomatic support, but Trump is not using that influence to pressure Israel.
III. Market Impact Analysis
Risk of US leadership failing
The actions of US allies show that America's traditional leadership is being challenged. This uncertainty in global order is driving safe-haven funds toward gold.
Expectation of regional conflict escalation
Israel's threat to annex the West Bank could spark a new Israel-Palestine conflict. The risk of the UAE leaving the Abraham Accords could disrupt regional stability. These widening geopolitical rifts are keeping gold's safe-haven premium at a high level of 5-7%.
Breakdown of policy coordination
Open divisions among Western allies on the Israel-Palestine issue could weaken their ability to handle global crises. This concern about failing multilateral mechanisms is leading institutional investors to increase gold's share in their portfolios.
IV. Technical Analysis
Gold price is staying strong amid geopolitical uncertainty. On September 25 at 11:03 Beijing time, it was 3756.62 USD per ounce. The recent support level is 3740.00-3750.00 USD per ounce. If it breaks the key resistance at 3800.00 USD per ounce, it could open up more upside, potentially reaching 4000.00 USD.
V. Prospect Outlook
Risk of annexation
If Israel officially starts annexing the West Bank, it could lead to collective responses from Arab countries and even the collapse of the Abraham Accords, significantly increasing geopolitical risk premiums.
US policy adjustments
Trump faces a tough choice between supporting Israel and maintaining unity with allies. Any policy shift could cause major market volatility.
UN follow-up actions
If more countries recognize Palestine, it might lead to related resolutions in the UN Security Council. If the US uses its veto, it could further isolate America internationally.
Summary
The collective recognition of Palestine by US allies marks a major shift in Middle East geopolitics, with growing cracks in Western alliances providing new support for gold prices. Investors should closely watch Israel's actions on the West Bank annexation, responses from Arab countries, and any US policy changes.