1. Event summary
On October 8, 2025, the second anniversary of Hamas’s October 7, 2023 attack on Israel, Hamas said it is ready to reach a deal to end the Gaza war under U.S. President Donald Trump’s plan. Hamas listed conditions: a permanent full ceasefire, full Israeli withdrawal, and reconstruction supervised by a Palestinian “national technical body.” Talks are held in Sharm El-Sheikh, Egypt.
On Wednesday, the prime minister of Qatar and U.S. senior mediators (including Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner) will join to push for a ceasefire and the release of hostages. Trump said he is optimistic about Middle East peace and thinks the deal could go beyond Gaza. A source said the negotiation atmosphere has improved. Hamas says it needs guarantees to end the war and prevent a repeat. Israel insists Hamas must be disarmed and its rule removed. The war has killed over 67,000 people in Gaza and about 1,200 in Israel. There are 48 hostages remaining, 20 of whom are alive. Despite cautious optimism, officials warn to be careful. Israel continues military operations and many Gaza civilians hope for an end to suffering. Global protests and memorials are also taking place, showing deep disagreements.
2. Reactions
Hamas senior official Khalil al-Hayya said the negotiating team is serious and responsible and ready to reach a deal if there are guarantees. Another Hamas official, Fawzi Barhoum, said any deal must end the war, include Israeli withdrawal, and start rebuilding. He opposed giving up weapons.
U.S. officials said the initial focus is on a ceasefire and prisoner/hostage exchanges. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu did not comment directly on the talks but said Israel is in a “decisive day” and will keep its goals: rescuing hostages, removing Hamas rule, and making Gaza no threat. Israel’s far right had said earlier it would topple the government if the war ended.
3. Market impact analysis
1) Reduced geo-risk may cut safe-haven demand short term
Hamas saying it is ready to reach a deal, Trump’s optimism, and senior mediators joining could ease the Middle East conflict and lower the geopolitical risk premium. This may push investors into risk assets and reduce gold’s short-term safe-haven demand, causing a pullback in gold prices. But if talks break down, renewed conflict would support gold again.
2) Diplomatic uncertainty and divisions give structural support
Hamas’s conditions (like Israeli withdrawal and refusal to disarm) clash with Israel’s goals. Palestinian faction resistance and global protests increase diplomatic uncertainty. Possible sanctions or political isolation could push sovereign funds to buy more gold to hedge alliance risks, creating longer-term buying pressure.
3) Inflation and reconstruction concerns strengthen gold’s role
If a deal is reached, Gaza’s reconstruction will need large funds, which could raise inflation expectations. If the war continues or causes energy shocks, gold’s inflation-hedge role will grow. Investors may seek non-political assets like gold to hedge economic volatility and stagflation risks.
4. Technical analysis
At 10:32 Beijing time on October 8, spot gold officially passed $4,000 and was $4,005.19 per ounce, up 0.52% for the day. The 14-day RSI was 70.462, in the buy zone. The MACD (12,26) was 11.78, showing a buy signal and strong upward momentum. Investors should watch the talks and the U.S. government shutdown risk to avoid possible sharp pullbacks.
5. Outlook
1) Progress in Egypt talks
If senior mediators help secure an initial ceasefire and hostage exchanges on Wednesday, this will be bearish for gold short term. If Hamas conditions or Israeli demands block progress and talks stall, renewed conflict will raise the risk premium and be bullish for gold.
2) Middle East diplomacy and international responses
If Qatar and Egypt gain wider Arab support, the peace framework could expand. But global protests and moves like more countries recognizing Palestine could increase divisions and support gold in the medium to long term. Continued Israeli attacks or sanctions would raise systemic risk.
3) Reconstruction and energy market risks
Unclear financing for Gaza reconstruction and possible energy market disruptions could boost inflation expectations, supporting gold. If Trump’s peace plan spreads, there may be short-term easing, but long-term disagreements remain.
Summary
Hamas said on the war anniversary it is ready to agree to a Gaza deal but with conditions. This signals a possible shift in the Middle East. The easing expectation may reduce gold’s safe-haven demand in the short term. However, diplomatic divisions, resistance vows, and reconstruction risks still provide upside for gold. Investors should watch the talks on Wednesday, Arab states’ reactions, and global protest developments. Technically, gold looks strong, and geopolitical risk may keep a premium while uncertainty continues.