I. Fundamental Analysis
Severe Deterioration of US-Iran Relations and New Round of US Airstrikes:
Following drone and missile attacks on three commercial tankers in the Strait of Hormuz, the US Central Command (CENTCOM) announced a new round of military strikes against Iran. Explosions occurred at military and civilian port facilities across multiple coastal cities and islands.
US Revokes Oil Waivers, Escalating Sanctions:
As a direct retaliation for the attacks, the White House and the US Department of the Treasury announced the revocation of the international oil sales general license previously issued to Iran on June 22 (originally postponed to August 21). International markets are required to fully clear all oil transactions with Iran before July 17.
The Iranian Ministry of Foreign Affairs accused this move of blatantly violating the previously reached armistice agreement and warned the US that it would bear all consequences. President Trump reiterated his tough stance of "either reach a final agreement or solve the problem completely," while the Iranian Foreign Minister responded that final negotiations would not begin as long as the threat persists.
Resurgence of Shipping Channel Crisis and Surge in Crude Oil Prices:
The Joint Maritime Information Center (JMIC) officially raised the commercial transit risk level of the Strait of Hormuz to "Critical Risk" due to attacks on multiple vessels. Driven by supply disruption risks and the reinstatement of sanctions, international oil prices surged sharply within a single day, with Brent crude futures approaching $76 per barrel.
PBOC Significantly Increases Gold Reserves:
Official data released by the People's Bank of China (PBOC) showed that China continued its gold-purchasing streak for the 20th consecutive calendar month in June. Gold reserves reached 75.44 million ounces, an increase of 480,000 ounces (approximately 15 tons) month-on-month, marking the largest single-month increase since October 2023.
London spot gold finally closed lower at $4,105.84 per ounce on Tuesday, and prices are currently moving further down. The market is keeping a close watch on the minutes of the Federal Reserve's June policy meeting, which will be released this Wednesday evening.
II. Cyclical Technical Analysis
One-Hour Cycle (Intraday Short-Term: Neutral to Weak)
Trend Assessment: The short-term market presents a clear range-bound choppy pattern. Gold prices fell back sharply due to short-selling pressure after spiking yesterday, and the current price has broken below the moving average support.
Indicator Monitoring: RSI is recorded at 38.41, sitting in the weak zone, with short-term selling pressure still dominant.
Four-Hour Cycle (Medium-Term Trend: Neutral)
Trend Assessment: The medium-term technical structure maintains a horizontal consolidation pattern. Both bulls and bears are wrestling within the wave range, failing to form a consistent one-way directional expansion, and the market lacks clear trend breakout momentum.
Indicator Monitoring: RSI is running at 47.21, positioned in the slightly bearish middle ground.
III. Core Key Price Levels
Upper Boundary of Observation Range: 4170.00 (Intraday bullish technical resistance and upper boundary of the range)
Lower Boundary of Observation Range: 4100.00 (Key psychological support below and lower boundary of the range)
IV. Trading Execution Plan
Given that both short- and medium-term directions are defined as neutral, and the bullish and bearish momentums have not aligned before the sudden geopolitical military confrontation and the release of the Fed minutes, a wait-and-see strategy of continuous observation and minimal action will be adopted for intraday trading:
Strategy Direction: Continuous Observation (Wait-and-See Strategy)
Trading Signal: Continuous Observation
Confidence Index: 40.00 / 100.00
Observation Range: 4100.00 - 4170.00
Range Midpoint: 4135.00
Current Price: 4116.00
【Execution Details】
Risk Control Guidelines:
The current price is trading around $4107.00, sitting in the lower half of the designated observation range. Ahead of the heavy-weight Federal Reserve meeting minutes release on Wednesday, market liquidity is prone to abnormal spikes. Blindly placing directional bets or chasing orders in the middle of the range can easily lead to significant losses.
Prerequisites for Opening Positions:
It is recommended that flat traders stay patient today and maintain a comprehensive wait-and-see stance. Before the market price effectively breaks above the upper boundary of $4170.00 or drops below the lower boundary of $4100.00, opening positions in this instrument is temporarily not recommended.
Risk Warning: The trading market involves unpredictable risks, including but not limited to the loss of principal. This analysis is for reference only and does not constitute direct investment advice. Investors should make independent judgments and autonomous decisions based on their own risk tolerance.