Gold Rebounds to Near 4,410 USD After Intraday Highs

Spot gold maintained its position above 4,400 USD during early Asian trading on August 13. Prices briefly touched an intraday high of 4,449.71 USD before pulling back to trade around 4,409.53 USD per ounce, holding steady near multi-month highs. Softer US labor market data and tame CPI readings continue to curb hawkish Fed expectations, though profit-taking resistance persists near 4,450 USD.

Soft US July CPI Triggers Policy Expectation Recalibration

US July CPI rose 0.1% month-over-month and 3.4% year-over-year, moderating from June's 3.5%. Core CPI slowed to 2.5% YoY, reinforcing signals that inflation pressures are stabilizing. Market probabilities for a September Fed rate hike dropped from 46% to 40%, signaling that policymakers will likely stay on hold.

PPI and Initial Jobless Claims Take Center Stage

Investor focus shifts to US PPI, initial jobless claims, and upcoming retail sales data. Mild producer prices and rising jobless claims would reinforce expectations for policy stability, whereas higher-than-expected PPI could reignite inflation concerns and spark short-term volatility.

US-Iran Stalemate Keeps Strait of Hormuz Transit Restricted

Diplomatic negotiations between the US and Iran remain stalled. Maritime data indicated only eight vessels transited the Strait of Hormuz on Tuesday, well below normal levels. Continued geopolitical risk in key shipping lanes sustains safe-haven support for bullion.

Market Outlook Focuses on the 4,450 USD Resistance Level

Gold prices continue to benefit from moderate inflation data and geopolitical friction. However, elevated energy costs stemming from Middle East tensions could re-ignite price pressures, leaving future central bank policy expectations subject to further recalibration.