Trump Posts AI Video Simulating Attack on Iran, Gold Prices Pressured Lower
1. Trump Posts AI Video; US Prepares High-Frequency Sanctions
Following the U.S. military strikes on two Iranian missile launchers on Sunday, President Trump posted a video on social media on Monday claiming that Iran's core hub, Kharg Island, was being "blown to pieces." However, it was later confirmed that the video is highly likely AI-generated, and there is currently no other evidence indicating an actual strike on the energy hub.
Simultaneously, the U.S. is preparing to push forward with high-frequency financial sanctions:
Treasury Secretary Bessent stated that the U.S. will roll out new secondary sanctions on a "weekly" basis. The initial wave will directly target Iran-linked banks, severing their connections to the dollar-dominated financial system to sustain maximum economic pressure on Iran.
2. 30-Minute Chart: Oversold Rebound Triggered After Breaking Below $4,400
As of 13:44 Beijing time, spot gold traded at $4,437.67/oz, down 0.40% (a decline of $17.61) intraday.
During the early session, gold continued its recent unilateral downtrend from the high of $4,472.17, printing consecutive bearish candles. Bearish momentum was exceptionally strong, forcefully breaking below the $4,400 psychological mark and plumbing a deep low of $4,396.60.
After establishing the $4,396.60 low, severe short-term oversold conditions triggered technical buying, prompting a mild rebound. In terms of moving averages, the MA1 and MA20 have curled upward below the price, providing slight foundational support for the short-term bounce; however, the MA30 overhead continues its downward trajectory, serving as immediate intraday resistance.
3. Technical Indicators: Extreme Oversold Conditions Fuel Technical Repair
On the 30-minute timeframe, the overall technical assessment maintains a "Strong Sell" (3 Bullish, 0 Neutral, 7 Bearish). Macro trend indicators show bears in absolute control, though sensitive oscillators hint at rebound momentum from oversold lows:
• Trend and Momentum Maintain Bearish Suppression: The MACD(12,26) stands at -31.81, deeply submerged and continuously issuing sell signals; the ADX(14) registers 47.10 with a sell prompt, indicating the current downtrend possesses intense continuity; the CCI(14) is at -85.05, also tracking in a bearish channel.
• Fast Oscillators Flash Oversold Rebound Signals: The RSI(14) plummeted to 24.24, entering extreme oversold territory; the StochRSI(14) reads 74.23, and the STOCH(9,6) sits at 55.58, both shifting to "Buy" prompts driven by the low-level bounce.
Indicator confluence suggests that while gold's broader descending channel is highly robust (supported by strong sell signals from ADX and MACD), the rapid morning sell-off caused severe RSI oversold conditions. Consequently, upon touching $4,396.60, gold naturally initiated a short-term technical repair.
4. Summary: Geopolitical Inflation Fears Boost Rate Expectations, Pressuring Gold
Overall, direct military exchanges between the U.S. and Iran at Larak Island and Jordanian bases, coupled with impending high-frequency U.S. financial sanctions, have reignited tensions in the Middle East. The escalating geopolitical conflict continues to stoke fears of major energy supply chain disruptions. This potential inflationary pressure further solidifies market expectations that the Federal Reserve will maintain its restrictive, high-interest-rate policy, serving as the core gravitational pull driving gold prices lower.