US-Iran Military Clashes Shatter Ceasefire, Gold Stages Technical Rebound from Lows

1. News & Events



On Wednesday, the most intense military exchanges in weeks erupted between the United States and Iran, shattering the relative calm that had persisted since July:

• US Strikes Targets Inside Iran: US Central Command announced that the military had successfully struck targets within Iran, including air defense positions, radar systems, maritime facilities, and communication nodes. This action was in response to earlier Iranian threats against major energy transport vessels passing through the Strait of Hormuz.

• Iran Launches Multi-Front Retaliation: In retaliation, Iranian official statements claimed strikes on US military assets stationed in Jordan and Iraq, with some Iranian media reporting attacks in Bahrain as well. The Jordanian Armed Forces stated they intercepted multiple ballistic missiles entering their airspace, while Bahrain also confirmed the destruction of incoming drones.

• Civilian Casualties Spark Condemnation: The Iranian Red Crescent Society reported that a wedding party was struck near the Sirik region along the Strait of Hormuz, resulting in the deaths of 5 civilians (including a 4-year-old child) and injuring dozens. The Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson issued a strong condemnation, warning of a more extensive and devastating response to the attack.

• Hardline Stances from Both Sides: US President Trump stated that the US is currently in near-total control of the Strait of Hormuz and is in a very advantageous position. Meanwhile, Iran's joint military command warned that any country cooperating with US military actions would face dangerous consequences.

2. 30-Minute Chart Analysis



As of 13:59 Beijing time, spot gold traded at $4,321.13/oz, down slightly by 0.17% (a decline of $7.50), having recovered significantly from early session lows.

Gold opened today at $4,334.84. During the early session, the market faced sustained unilateral selling pressure. The candlesticks formed a stepped decline, consecutively breaking through the $4,300 psychological mark and plunging to an intraday low of $4,281.76.

Upon touching the $4,281.76 low, extreme short-term oversold conditions prompted rapid bottom-fishing. The candlesticks printed consecutive high-volume bullish bars, executing a fluid vertical rebound. In terms of moving averages, this rapid surge forced the price to decisively break above the MA20 ($4,305.69) and MA1 ($4,309.54). Currently, gold is testing and consolidating tightly against the overhead MA30 ($4,316.38). The early session's downward gravity has been largely diluted by this robust technical rally.

3. 30-Minute Technical Indicators



On the 30-minute timeframe, the overall technical assessment shifted from a bearish bias in the morning to a "Strong Buy" (6 Bullish, 2 Neutral, 2 Bearish). Short-term bullish momentum has exploded, though a divergence has emerged between trend indicators and sensitive oscillators:

• Core Oscillators Return to Neutral: The RSI(14) registered 47.75, returning precisely to the neutral zone with no clear directional bias. The STOCH(9,6) at 51.87 is also in neutral territory, indicating that the early panic selling has concluded, and bulls and bears have reached a temporary equilibrium near $4,320.

• Sensitive Indicators Hit Extreme Overbought: The StochRSI(14) hit a perfect maximum score of 100.00, diving directly into deep overbought territory. This suggests that after a rapid surge of nearly $40, short-term profit-taking pressure has accumulated. The price may require technical consolidation before attempting further highs.

• Medium-Term Trend Indicators Remain Suppressed: The MACD(12,26) stands at -14.12, maintaining a sell signal. However, the ADX(14) reads 28.95 (Buy), accompanied by the CCI(14) at 56.20 flipping to a bullish bias. This indicates that while the short-term rebound momentum is fierce, the broader bearish trajectory has not been entirely reversed in a single stroke.

4. Summary

Overall, the fiercest military exchanges between the US and Iran in weeks have broken the recent ceasefire stalemate. The reignited conflict poses a direct threat to the global foundational energy supply chain, easily pushing energy prices higher. This, in turn, sparks inflation fears and solidifies high-interest-rate expectations, which remains the core macroeconomic headwind suppressing gold. However, from a short-term technical perspective, after plunging to $4,281.76 early on, gold staged a powerful oversold rebound driven by robust technical buying, bringing the current price near $4,321.13. Going forward, traders should closely monitor whether gold can effectively stabilize above the MA30 ($4,316.38) and whether the extreme overbought readings on short-term indicators (like StochRSI) can be cleared through healthy horizontal consolidation.