Trump Says Strikes Won't Last Long as ADP Afterglow Fuels Gold
1. News & Events
On Wednesday, U.S. President Trump told reporters in the Oval Office that the renewed U.S. military strikes against Iran, following the most intense exchanges between the two nations since July, will not last for an "extended period."
In his remarks, Trump disclosed specific details of the latest military operations. He stated that the U.S. military had destroyed all new equipment Iran was attempting to install along the coast of the Strait of Hormuz, including defensive and offensive weaponry.
Specific targets included radar and missile systems that Iran was trying to repair, as well as a rocket designed to deploy naval mines. Trump emphasized that the overnight strikes were "very heavy" and warned that the U.S. is prepared to launch another strike "at any time."
2. 30-Minute Chart Analysis
As of 14:11 Beijing time, spot gold traded at $4,431.49/oz, up significantly by 1.01% (an increase of $44.23) intraday, with a session peak touching $4,440.26.
During early trading, after finding solid support near $4,381.13, bullish capital launched a fluid, stepped advance. The candlesticks printed consecutive high-volume bullish bars, slicing effortlessly through the $4,400 psychological mark and extending the rally above $4,440.
In terms of moving averages, accompanying the massive $100+ V-shaped reversal, the short-term moving averages have formed an extremely steep bullish alignment.
The MA30 ($4,407.81) has turned sharply upward, establishing a robust structural support floor below. The MA1 ($4,432.31) and MA20 ($4,426.47) are tracking closely with the candlestick bodies. After testing the $4,440.26 high, price action contracted slightly and is currently consolidating strongly at highs around the MA1.
3. 30-Minute Technical Indicators
On the 30-minute timeframe, the overall technical assessment shows overwhelming bullish dominance. Trend and momentum indicators are exceptionally strong, though the relentless short-squeeze has pushed several sensitive oscillators into extreme overbought territory:
• Macro Trend Momentum Extremely Strong: The MACD(12,26) reads 19.97, continuously flashing strong buy signals. The ADX(14) trend strength indicator hit an elevated 52.34, confirming that the V-shaped rebound launched from the bottom possesses immense capital continuity and explosive power.
• Core Oscillators Enter Overbought Zone: The RSI(14) climbed to 72.42, breaching the bullish overbought threshold of 70. The STOCH(9,6) at 83.04 and Williams %R at -13.29 have all entered high overbought trajectories, warning of significant accumulated profit-taking pressure in the near term.
• Short-Term Washout Indicators Neutralize: The fast StochRSI(14) retreated precisely to the neutral zone at 47.19. This suggests that after hitting $4,440, the market is healthily digesting the overbought sentiment via horizontal consolidation without experiencing panic selling.
4. Summary
Overall, while Trump confirmed heavy military strikes along the Strait of Hormuz last night, the true catalyst driving gold's violent reversal is the unexpectedly weak U.S. ADP employment data released overnight. The cooling labor market significantly curtailed market bets on a September Fed rate hike, pulling both U.S. Treasury yields and the Dollar Index down from their highs. This macro shift neutralized the tightening fears sparked by soaring energy prices, thoroughly igniting a massive, $100+ V-shaped rally in gold.