Waller Signals Dovish Tone, Gold Reclaims $4,470 Ahead of Crucial NFP Tonight

1. Gold Consolidates at Highs After Rebound



During the Asian session on September 4, spot gold extended its consolidation following the previous trading day's rebound. As of around 10:00 AM Beijing time, gold traded at $4,479.45/oz, up $6.46 or 0.14% intraday. The session opened at $4,472.83, touching a high of $4,487.17 and a low of $4,467.17.

Gold performed noticeably better in the previous session, peaking at $4,510.90 before closing near $4,473, marking a daily gain of nearly 2%. After a continuous decline from above $4,690 to near $4,280, the price has reclaimed the $4,400 mark and is now oscillating in the $4,470–$4,490 range. On the 1-hour chart, the MA30 has recovered to near $4,466, with the current price maintaining a position above it.

2. Waller Suggests Holding Rates Steady in September



A key catalyst driving gold's rebound came from Fed Governor Christopher Waller. On September 3, Waller stated that while current inflation remains significantly above the Fed's 2% target, recent data has shown signs of cooling. If data released over the next two weeks continues to confirm this trend, he would lean toward supporting holding the current interest rate steady at the September 15-16 FOMC meeting.

However, Waller did not entirely rule out further policy adjustments. He emphasized that if August data proves the recent improvement to be merely temporary, then raising rates in September remains a viable option.



Following his remarks, market expectations for a further rate hike in September dropped noticeably to 50%, and Treasury yields retreated. Previously, Fed Chair Warsh's hawkish stance at Jackson Hole had driven these expectations sharply higher; Waller's latest speech has shifted the market back into a wait-and-see mode pending data confirmation.

3. Treasury Yields Retreat, Gold Restabilizes Above $4,400

As policy expectations shifted, the U.S. Treasury market adjusted accordingly. The 10-year Treasury yield pulled back to around 4.75%, and the 2-year yield also declined.

Previously, the 10-year yield had surged above 4.8%, pushing gold rapidly below $4,400. Now, as yields retreat from their recent peaks, the downward pressure on gold has eased.

The U.S. Dollar Index has also descended from its recent highs. In tandem with the pullback in Treasury yields, this helped gold swiftly recover from near $4,280 to re-enter the territory above $4,400.

4. Middle East Tensions Remain Unsettled

Concurrently, the situation between the U.S. and Iran remains a crucial focus for the market. Recent military clashes significantly reduced traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, driving international energy prices higher for several consecutive sessions.

However, based on the latest reports, there have been no further large-scale exchanges of fire, and regional tensions have temporarily cooled. The market is now focused on whether diplomatic contacts will resume and whether traffic conditions in key waterways will improve.

Consequently, while Middle East factors continue to provide some safe-haven demand for gold, short-term price action is once again primarily dominated by U.S. interest rate expectations and economic data.

5. Non-Farm Payrolls Released Tonight



The most critical upcoming event is the U.S. August employment report. The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics confirmed that the data will be published at 8:30 AM Eastern Time on September 4, which corresponds to 20:30 tonight Beijing time.

July's employment data was notably weak, and the figures for May and June were revised down by a cumulative 103,000 jobs. Therefore, tonight's NFP release will directly shape market judgments regarding the Fed's September meeting.