NFP to be Released Tonight, Gold Consolidates in Narrow Range
1. News & Events
On Friday, global financial markets shifted their full attention to the upcoming U.S. August Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report. Economists broadly expect August non-farm payrolls to rebound to an addition of 56,000 jobs, up from the previous decline of 23,000. The unemployment rate is projected to remain flat at 4.1%, while annual wage growth is expected to slow to 3.0% from 3.2% in July.
Meanwhile, Fed Governor Christopher Waller stated clearly in a public interview that if upcoming data confirms cooling inflationary pressures, he would lean toward supporting keeping interest rates unchanged at their current level during this month's policy meeting.
Influenced by Waller's remarks favoring the status quo, market pricing for a September Fed rate hike dropped significantly. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, traders' expectations for a rate hike this month plummeted from 63.2% on Wednesday to approximately 50%.
2. 30-Minute Chart Analysis
As of 13:46 Beijing time, spot gold traded at $4,472.37/oz, down marginally by 0.01% (a drop of $0.62) intraday.
Following last night's massive rebound triggered by Fed officials' remarks (which briefly pushed the price near the $4,500 psychological mark), both bulls and bears opted to retreat during today's Asian session. The price has essentially engaged in an extremely narrow horizontal tug-of-war around the $4,470 level throughout the day.
Looking at the moving average system, the three core moving averages—MA1 ($4,470.51), MA20 ($4,472.62), and MA30 ($4,474.33)—have become highly entangled and flattened within the tiny $4,470 to $4,474 range. The steep slope of last night's unilateral rally has been thoroughly digested by these flattened moving averages, signaling that the market has entered a classic "quiet period" ahead of major data releases.
3. 30-Minute Technical Indicators
On the 30-minute timeframe, as the market remains stuck in a prolonged narrow consolidation, the overall technical assessment reflects a mixed tug-of-war, with multiple core indicators returning squarely to neutral territory:
• Core Oscillators Remain Neutral: The Relative Strength Index RSI(14) stands at 52.54, resting precisely above the neutral 50 centerline with no directional bias; the Commodity Channel Index CCI(14) sits at -39.72, similarly operating within a neutral consolidation zone.
• Trend Momentum Narrows Significantly: The MACD(12,26) records 2.50, retaining a mild buy signal, but the bullish momentum histogram has shrunk considerably. The ADX(14), reflecting trend strength, reads 20.69, indicating that the market has lost its distinct unilateral driving force and transitioned into a sideways trend.
• Short-Term Sensitive Indicators Pull Back Mildly: The fast StochRSI(14) is at 35.09, the standard STOCH(9,6) reads 28.40, and the Williams %R sits at -56.65. All three show a mild, bearish pullback posture.
This indicator confluence suggests that after approaching the initial resistance near $4,500, the market's willingness to chase higher prices is limited. Traders are currently digesting last night's gains through horizontal consolidation, quietly awaiting the ultimate fundamental breakout signal tonight.
4. Summary
Overall, the "pause rate hike" signal released by Fed Governor Waller successfully pushed the probability of a September rate hike down to roughly 50%. This reversal in policy expectations drove both U.S. Treasury yields and the Dollar Index lower, serving as the direct catalyst for gold's massive rebound near the $4,500 mark last night. Currently, the market is holding its breath as it awaits the U.S. August Non-Farm Payrolls report, scheduled for release at 20:30 Beijing time tonight.