I. Market Focus Locks on Non-Farm Payrolls Data
Because Friday marks the 250th anniversary of US Independence Day, the US Department of Labor will release the highly anticipated June non-farm payrolls report early, on Thursday (today) evening.
The market currently expects June non-farm payrolls to increase by 110,000 jobs, marking a slowdown from May's 172,000, while the unemployment rate is projected to hold steady at 4.3% for the fourth consecutive month.
Even with the expected slowdown in job growth, economists believe the labor market remains stable in a "low hiring, low firing" deadlock. Furthermore, average hourly earnings are projected to rise 3.5% year-over-year, ticking slightly higher than May's 3.4%. This suggests that wage growth remains resilient but hasn't reached a level that would push inflation significantly higher.
Right now, the interest rate market prices the probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike at the September policy meeting at around 50.7%. Thanks to a ceasefire agreement between the US and Iran driving international crude oil prices down, the risk of a massive inflation spike has faded slightly.
If tonight's employment data matches expectations or cools moderately, it could ease market anxieties over aggressive policy tightening by the Fed in the second half of the year, giving gold bulls some breathing room and space for an intraday bounce.
II. Gold Prices Volatily Climb to Clear the $4,070 Handle
As of 2:05 PM Beijing Time on July 2, 2026, spot gold was trading at $4,070.97 per ounce, up 0.99% for the day.
Early Session Consolidation at Low Levels:
Gold opened today at $4,031.18 and ticked lower briefly after the opening bell, hitting an intraday low of $4,030.71 during the morning session. As geopolitical tensions cooled, early selling pressure was fully digested above the $4,030 level.
Afternoon Volume Surge: Starting from 10:30 AM, bulls gradually took control of the floor, sending gold into a step-by-step upward consolidation. Around 1:45 PM, a surge in volume pushed the price to an intraday high of $4,075.88.
Bullish Alignment of Moving Averages Offers Support: The candlestick price is currently running firmly above the short-term MAs: MA1 (4,062.94), MA20 (4,064.44), and MA30 (4,059.85). Following the rapid afternoon rally, these three short-cycle moving averages have completed an upward cross, exhibiting a clean bullish alignment and building a support zone in the $4,060–$4,065 range.
III. Technical Indicators Show Short-Term Momentum Recovery
Looking at the latest technical indicators on the 15-minute chart, gold spent a long time consolidating at low levels during the morning session.
Consequently, despite the rapid afternoon breakout, most oscillators remain in neutral territory and have not yet entered an overextended, overbought zone:
Oscillators Remain Neutral: The Relative Strength Index (RSI 14) stands at 39.223, the Stochastic %K tracks at 21.409, and the Commodity Channel Index (CCI 20) is at -69.646. These readings show that despite the sharp afternoon rebound, the market is not seeing blind, overbought chasing in shorter cycles. This helps bulls solidify a bottom and pave the way for further consolidation.
Healthy Digestion of Short-Term Sentiment: The more sensitive Stochastic RSI Fast stands at 44.145, and the Williams Percent Range (14) sits at -70.965, both running at relatively low levels. This hints that the current chart layout still leaves upward room for bulls to maneuver.
Medium-Term Bearish Structure Exerts Downward Pressure: The Average Directional Index (ADX 14), which measures overall trend strength, shows a neutral reading of 41.904, but the core medium-term directional indicator, the MACD (12, 26), sits at -115.371, signaling a sell. This indicates that the bearish track on larger timeframes has not yet been reversed, and the sustainability of the subsequent bounce still hinges entirely on tonight's official NFP numbers.
IV. Gold Market Outlook
Overall, a slight fine-tuning of tightening expectations ahead of the non-farm payrolls report serves as the core driver for today's technical, oversold rebound in gold. The crash in crude prices brought on by the US-Iran ceasefire has lowered the tail risks of hyperinflation, allowing the market's trading focus to return to fundamental data.
In the short term, close attention should be paid to the support strength of today's low at $4,030.71. If tonight's non-farm payrolls significantly beat the 110,000 expectation and the unemployment rate unexpectedly ticks down, the narrative of a year-end rate hike will be reinforced once more, likely putting gold prices under pressure to test lower levels again.